NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	2.5 [1255]		MVP	Juan Dixon (WAS): +6.3%
Washington Wizards	118		Comeback	1.0 [1256]		LVP	Rafer Alston (TOR): -7.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	9	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	23	57%	0.01	4	-0.03	10	90%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	0.00	0.08	17	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	0.00	0.05	18	49%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.20	0.00	0.14	16	81%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	72%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	63%	0.03	1	-0.01	9	67%	-0.01
Laron Profit	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	24	48%	0.01	3	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.16	0.00	-0.10	14	48%	-0.02	4	-0.04	20	85%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	29.2	15.4	29.5	2.4	23.7	130.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +41.0%

WAS +1.8%

WAS +6.4%

WAS +0.6%

WAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.5	107.9	116.8	104.0
season	15.1	14.7		104.8	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.5	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.6	15.5	10.4	15.1	13.8
WAS	14.8	12.8	15.3	16.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Williams	13	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-4	-1	14.3	13.7	0.60	14.3	14.8	-0.52
Matt Bonner	41	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-12	15	12.9	14.4	-1.56	13.4	15.6	-2.21
Rafael Araujo	18	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-3	-3	15.5	13.4	2.09	12.6	15.2	-2.51
Eric Williams	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-2	-5	14.8	13.4	1.41	14.5	14.8	-0.29
Lamond Murray	36	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-3	-3	11.4	15.1	-3.76	15.8	14.1	1.66
Milt Palacio	24	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	2	-13	17.6	12.6	4.99	16.7	14.2	2.54
Rafer Alston	77	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-11	13	12.6	17.6	-4.99	14.2	16.7	-2.54
Morris Peterson	85	84	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-11	13	13.7	14.0	-0.26	14.3	16.6	-2.30
Donyell Marshall	29	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	4	-17	16.5	12.7	3.79	16.7	13.9	2.79
Chris Bosh	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-5	1	14.0	13.2	0.79	15.0	13.9	1.10
Jalen Rose	82	82	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-9	9	13.4	15.4	-2.02	14.9	13.9	0.97

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	87	86	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	4	1	14.4	16.6	-2.22	13.4	15.7	-2.29
Antawn Jamison	91	92	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	5	-1	14.5	17.0	-2.52	13.3	18.8	-5.48
Gilbert Arenas	94	95	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	8	-7	14.6	16.1	-1.52	13.3	20.7	-7.32
Jared Jeffries	44	43	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-4	17	15.4	14.2	1.12	16.1	12.1	3.98
Juan Dixon	70	70	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.30	0	9	-9	14.9	14.3	0.59	13.9	13.5	0.38
Brendan Haywood	68	67	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	6	-3	14.2	15.8	-1.57	14.8	11.7	3.09
Etan Thomas	12	11	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.18	14	-5	19	16.9	14.4	2.48	17.4	13.3	4.02
Michael Ruffin	35	37	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	5	-1	15.8	14.2	1.63	11.6	15.1	-3.49
Laron Profit	4	4	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	8	-7	12.2	14.8	-2.59	9.2	14.0	-4.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, DAL 120	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
TOR 103, MIA 120	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
TOR 118, NYK 131	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%