NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	103		Excitement	2.5 [1261]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): +10.3%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	1.1 [1282]		LVP	Julian Wright (TOR): -6.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.13	0.00	0.09	25	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	7	78%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	8	70%	0.00	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	5	47%	0.01	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Sundiata Gaines	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.00	0.05	24	52%	0.01	3	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Julian Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	3	143%	0.13	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.19	0.01	0.10	20	74%	0.14	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	29	53%	0.10	1	-0.00	14	64%	-0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.03	6	88%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	0.00	0.10	10	62%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.7	27.8	14.8	26.7	1.8	33.2	134.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.3%

TOR -0.4%

MIA +5.0%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	16.8	15.5	113.2	129.0	105.7
season	15.1	16.0		104.7	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	13.3	13.8	14.7	14.4
MIA	15.4	16.0	19.5	16.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sundiata Gaines	9	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.12	-10	-7	-3	16.7	14.2	2.48	15.7	17.0	-1.29
Jose Calderon	80	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-14	11	14.0	17.7	-3.75	17.0	16.0	0.96
Jerryd Bayless	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-7	-3	14.3	14.7	-0.40	16.3	17.9	-1.63
DeMar DeRozan	67	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-11	5	14.5	14.1	0.41	17.0	16.3	0.70
Ed Davis	53	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	-4	-9	14.5	14.3	0.24	17.4	16.0	1.44
Julian Wright	52	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-3	-11	14.5	14.3	0.17	17.2	16.4	0.79
Andrea Bargnani	82	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-7	-3	14.0	18.3	-4.33	16.5	20.0	-3.53
Amir Johnson	53	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	2	-21	15.2	13.3	1.96	17.0	16.7	0.27

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	68	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	1	15	16.4	18.1	-1.68	14.5	14.3	0.13
Mario Chalmers	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.19	20	-3	23	16.7	17.3	-0.60	14.6	13.9	0.74
LeBron James	74	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	4	9	17.0	16.4	0.54	14.1	15.7	-1.54
Mike Miller	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.07	9	8	1	17.2	16.1	1.11	14.3	14.6	-0.31
James Jones	52	52	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.16	17	0	17	16.5	17.3	-0.75	14.9	13.8	1.02
Juwan Howard	32	31	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	11	-5	17.2	16.7	0.47	15.7	13.8	1.89
Eddie House	56	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.04	6	11	-5	16.4	17.5	-1.01	13.8	15.3	-1.51
Carlos Arroyo	23	21	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	20	-23	17.3	16.7	0.60	13.9	14.6	-0.74
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	25	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	16	-15	18.1	16.4	1.68	14.3	14.5	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 92, SAS 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MIN 87, MEM 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
GSW 96, LAL 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%