NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	7.6 [347]		MVP	James Jones (IND): +3.6%
Indiana Pacers	84		Comeback	1.4 [446]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -34.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	61%	0.07	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	14	59%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	9	46%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.05
Jameer Nelson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	2	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.09
Doug Christie	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	4	25%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.19	-0.03	-0.05	24	33%	-0.12	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Eddie Gill	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.26,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.29,-0.22,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	29	49%	-0.10	3	-0.08	20	70%	-0.15
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	0.00	6	50%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.15
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.17	-0.18	0.00	15	33%	-0.25	3	-0.10	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	31.9	15.8	25.7	1.8	47.9	149.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +8.4%

ORL +21.6%

ORL +4.3%

IND -0.9%

ORL +16.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	17.1	15.5	94.4	94.4	104.0
season	14.3	16.8		102.9	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.4	12.2	17.5	16.5	15.1
IND	16.9	19.1	18.5	14.2	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	80	78	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.63	0	1	-1	15.4	13.0	2.38	16.6	20.4	-3.75
Doug Christie	52	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	1	-1	14.3	16.2	-1.81	16.8	17.5	-0.71
Grant Hill	59	59	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.29	2	-1	3	15.5	14.4	1.06	17.2	16.8	0.42
Tony Battie	46	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	-3	7	14.3	16.0	-1.65	17.9	16.2	1.68
Kelvin Cato	50	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.42	-4	5	-9	16.6	13.3	3.31	16.1	18.5	-2.41
Dwight Howard	64	62	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	-2	5	15.7	13.7	2.00	17.4	16.4	0.91
Steve Francis	75	74	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	0	1	15.0	15.9	-0.91	16.9	18.2	-1.35
Jameer Nelson	5	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	1	-1	14.2	15.2	-0.96	28.0	16.6	11.44
Pat Garrity	19	18	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.03	-1	2	-3	11.9	16.0	-4.01	17.8	16.9	0.95

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Gill	0	1	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.09	0	-1	1	0.0	17.1	-17.08	2.0	15.3	-13.26
Anthony Johnson	21	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	0	-1	19.9	16.2	3.70	13.5	15.6	-2.13
Scot Pollard	27	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	1	-3	19.4	16.0	3.40	14.2	15.5	-1.30
Jonathan Bender	32	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.06	-3	2	-5	18.2	16.4	1.78	13.8	15.9	-2.09
James Jones	37	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-2	3	16.1	17.8	-1.66	16.1	14.5	1.55
Austin Croshere	23	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	9	-19	19.3	16.3	2.94	11.4	16.4	-4.94
Fred Jones	40	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	2	-5	18.7	15.8	2.94	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Jeff Foster	51	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.47	5	-6	11	15.7	18.9	-3.22	16.7	13.1	3.66
Reggie Miller	70	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-6	11	16.0	21.2	-5.25	15.9	12.8	3.03
Jamaal Tinsley	68	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-1	1	16.2	19.9	-3.70	15.4	14.0	1.39
Jermaine O'Neal	76	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.57	3	-4	7	16.7	19.5	-2.79	15.8	10.9	4.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.23,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 74, IND 72	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.15,0	94.2%
PHI 111, NOP 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.09,0	93.5%
DEN 107, NOP 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.27,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.08,0.33,0.08,0	93.5%