NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	74		Excitement	6.1 [568]		MVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): +6.2%
Indiana Pacers	72		Comeback	1.9 [150]		LVP	Paul George (IND): -31.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	13	47%	0.03	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Ed Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	62%	0.04	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	9	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	13	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.13	-0.02	20	43%	-0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.32	-0.32	-0.10	-0.21	0.01	12	34%	-0.27	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Paul George	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.12,-0.32	-0.32	-0.07	-0.24	0.00	14	37%	-0.22	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	0.8	26.3	16.3	30.5	2.5	30.4	132.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +70.8%

TOR +6.5%

IND -31.2%

TOR +4.3%

IND -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	IND	NBA	TOR	IND	NBA
this game	18.6	15.3	15.4	87.1	84.7	104.1
season	16.1	16.1		104.4	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.3		99.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	20.2	20.4	20.1	18.6
IND	16.3	15.0	13.3	16.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	69	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	-3	8	18.7	17.9	0.80	15.5	14.5	0.98
Andrea Bargnani	52	53	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	-3	8	17.8	19.8	-1.91	15.9	14.3	1.52
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.44	-2	4	-6	18.8	17.4	1.44	15.1	16.4	-1.34
Dominic McGuire	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	0	2	19.3	18.2	1.12	14.3	15.9	-1.62
Amir Johnson	50	49	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	6	-10	19.4	17.5	1.87	15.6	14.9	0.65
Terrence Ross	23	23	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	-3	8	17.4	19.0	-1.58	16.4	14.9	1.50
Jonas Valanciunas	39	39	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	-2	6	19.3	18.0	1.33	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Linas Kleiza	44	45	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	3	-4	18.3	18.9	-0.65	15.8	14.7	1.12
Ed Davis	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	3	-4	17.6	19.1	-1.47	14.9	15.5	-0.55
John Lucas III	16	16	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	5	-8	17.9	18.7	-0.80	14.5	15.5	-0.98

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	22	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.10	1	-3	4	13.9	15.8	-1.93	18.6	18.6	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	23	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	14.7	15.5	-0.76	17.7	18.9	-1.17
David West	65	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-4	6	14.9	16.6	-1.71	19.5	15.7	3.88
Tyler Hansbrough	39	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.39	6	-8	14	16.3	14.5	1.83	18.0	19.1	-1.09
Lance Stephenson	50	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	5	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.25	17.8	19.6	-1.77
Paul George	72	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.47	5	-7	12	14.8	18.0	-3.19	19.4	13.4	6.02
Gerald Green	48	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.36	-2	0	-2	16.6	13.6	2.91	18.1	19.3	-1.21
George Hill	63	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	1	-4	15.8	13.9	1.93	18.6	18.6	0.02
Roy Hibbert	43	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.18	-10	8	-18	15.3	15.3	0.02	18.2	19.0	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 102, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.06,0,0	94.2%
ORL 85, IND 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.23,0.17,0	94.2%
SEA 104, WAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.15,0	94.0%