NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	108		Excitement	5.6 [728]		MVP	Casey Jacobsen (PHX): +15.8%
Houston Rockets	98		Comeback	1.1 [597]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): -24.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Casey Jacobsen	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.00	7	87%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.16	-0.00	0.08	13	79%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	15	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	20	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	46%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.22	-0.01	-0.04	15	43%	-0.06	6	-0.13	14	64%	-0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	11	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	10	70%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	10	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	15	47%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.18,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.10	-0.01	25	41%	-0.14	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.4	26.5	18.5	28.2	2.8	30.0	135.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +55.0%

PHX +4.6%

HOU -7.5%

HOU -6.3%

PHX +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	HOU	NBA	PHX	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	16.7	15.5	114.9	105.4	104.0
season	13.5	16.0		112.9	104.2
opponent	15.8	16.0		100.6	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	15.6	13.0	13.5	14.4	14.1
HOU	16.4	14.7	18.4	17.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	85	83	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-5	20	14.3	11.9	2.43	17.2	12.8	4.40
Joe Johnson	75	74	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-2	14	14.3	13.2	1.16	17.1	15.3	1.84
Steven Hunter	42	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	-1	12	13.4	14.6	-1.23	16.5	16.9	-0.46
Steve Nash	73	72	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	2	6	14.0	14.2	-0.20	16.4	17.9	-1.52
Amar'e Stoudemire	74	74	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	8	-6	14.3	13.3	0.93	17.0	15.6	1.38
Shawn Marion	71	71	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	5	0	14.0	14.5	-0.52	16.3	18.1	-1.78
Casey Jacobsen	40	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	10	-10	13.7	14.4	-0.63	16.6	16.8	-0.14
Jake Voskuhl	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	13	-16	14.4	14.0	0.35	14.6	17.0	-2.41

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	4	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-11	12	19.7	16.6	3.15	20.6	13.7	6.88
Dikembe Mutombo	35	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.20	4	-14	18	16.2	17.0	-0.81	13.8	14.3	-0.50
Maurice Taylor	43	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-13	16	15.8	17.6	-1.79	12.9	15.1	-2.26
Jon Barry	48	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-12	14	16.1	17.4	-1.38	13.7	14.6	-0.90
Andre Barrett	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-9	8	15.8	17.5	-1.72	12.9	15.0	-2.13
Bob Sura	46	45	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-2	-6	17.4	16.1	1.31	14.8	13.4	1.37
Juwan Howard	50	51	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.00	-13	3	-16	17.6	15.8	1.79	15.1	12.9	2.26
Yao Ming	54	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	5	-20	16.8	16.6	0.24	13.7	14.6	-0.94
Tracy McGrady	80	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	17.2	14.0	3.18	14.2	13.5	0.63
David Wesley	63	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	5	-20	16.8	16.5	0.29	14.6	13.0	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.05,0.12,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
OKC 104, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MIN 95, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%