NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	93		Excitement	4.2 [1008]		MVP	Rodney Buford (NJN): +8.3%
New York Knicks	87		Comeback	1.1 [537]		LVP	Michael Sweetney (NYK): -15.8%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.00	8	81%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	3	83%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	13	57%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Collins	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	11	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	0.02	-0.06	18	40%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	71%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	13	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	19	65%	0.04	5	-0.08	10	70%	-0.02
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	14	44%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	6	19%	-0.12	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	0.2	27.9	16.5	25.5	2.4	37.5	131.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +51.8%

NYK -4.5%

NYK -6.1%

NJN +5.1%

NJN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	NYK	NBA	NJN	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	16.1	15.5	102.2	95.6	104.0
season	16.0	15.8		99.2	103.9
opponent	15.3	15.6		106.5	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.5	13.9	16.4	16.3	15.5
NYK	14.5	18.9	15.7	15.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Buford	46	47	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-5	16	15.7	15.3	0.43	16.6	15.7	0.89
Nenad Krstic	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-3	12	16.0	12.7	3.30	16.7	13.3	3.36
Vince Carter	76	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.41	-1	7	-8	15.5	15.7	-0.19	15.5	19.0	-3.47
Jabari Smith	33	33	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-6	18	16.3	15.1	1.20	16.9	15.7	1.20
Jason Kidd	68	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.38	-1	7	-8	15.2	16.4	-1.19	16.2	16.0	0.25
Jason Collins	61	61	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	9	-12	14.3	17.9	-3.52	15.7	17.1	-1.38
Travis Best	23	25	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-1	8	16.4	15.2	1.19	16.0	16.2	-0.25
Richard Jefferson	71	72	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.26	-4	10	-14	15.5	15.5	-0.06	15.9	16.9	-0.95

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	22	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-6	6	16.6	16.0	0.65	13.9	16.1	-2.16
Nazr Mohammed	68	69	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.48	14	-20	34	15.4	18.3	-2.89	15.5	15.6	-0.17
Allan Houston	61	62	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.44	11	-17	28	15.4	17.6	-2.17	15.5	15.5	0.03
Moochie Norris	10	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	3	-12	17.0	16.0	0.96	18.7	15.1	3.59
Jerome Williams	22	23	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	0	-6	17.8	15.6	2.15	13.3	16.2	-2.95
Kurt Thomas	74	75	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-7	8	15.6	18.3	-2.65	15.9	13.4	2.51
Stephon Marbury	81	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-9	12	16.0	17.0	-0.96	15.1	18.7	-3.59
Tim Thomas	71	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	15.9	16.9	-1.03	16.0	13.9	2.14
Michael Sweetney	23	21	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.12	-19	13	-32	18.3	15.4	2.89	16.2	15.3	0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.06,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
DAL 92, NJN 75	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.29,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
DAL 105, DEN 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%