NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	4.3 [752]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +13.2%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.0 [593]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -8.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.02	12	71%	0.13	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	20	60%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	7	87%	0.15	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	8	76%	0.11	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	12	37%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	9	23%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.03	9	77%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	68%	0.08	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	12	55%	0.07	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	79%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	16	43%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.5	34.4	15.4	24.4	1.8	27.2	128.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.7%

DEN -2.9%

DAL +8.4%

DAL +12.9%

DAL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	14.1	15.6	110.5	102.2	102.8
season	15.5	14.5		101.6	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.5	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	17.6	15.7	18.3	16.5
DEN	14.1	12.9	14.9	14.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	71	67	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-2	14	16.8	15.6	1.25	13.8	14.8	-0.93
Shawn Marion	62	61	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	16.5	16.6	-0.09	13.4	15.4	-1.95
Vince Carter	57	57	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	-6	22	15.8	17.7	-1.90	14.7	13.1	1.56
Brandan Wright	30	29	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	2	6	18.7	15.5	3.19	13.3	14.4	-1.09
Rodrigue Beaubois	35	35	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	4	2	17.5	15.9	1.54	15.3	13.4	1.86
Brendan Haywood	42	41	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	3	4	15.8	17.1	-1.27	13.9	14.2	-0.30
Delonte West	64	62	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	7	-4	16.0	17.5	-1.44	13.6	15.2	-1.60
Jason Terry	54	53	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	12	-14	16.9	16.0	0.91	14.0	14.2	-0.27
Lamar Odom	37	37	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	14	-18	16.5	16.6	-0.09	14.7	13.7	1.01
Ian Mahinmi	23	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	15	-20	15.0	17.0	-2.06	15.3	13.7	1.66

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	37	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-13	16	14.4	13.9	0.42	17.2	16.0	1.20
Andre Miller	57	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-14	18	13.7	14.8	-1.11	16.9	15.9	0.95
Julyan Stone	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-2	-6	12.2	14.5	-2.26	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Rudy Fernandez	55	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.29	4	-14	18	14.4	13.7	0.70	16.9	15.9	1.04
Chris Andersen	29	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	3	-16	14.1	14.1	0.06	15.0	17.2	-2.23
Ty Lawson	73	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-6	2	14.4	13.1	1.27	16.1	18.1	-2.03
Al Harrington	64	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-5	0	14.3	13.7	0.54	16.5	16.6	-0.08
Nene	70	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	0	-10	14.1	14.1	0.01	16.4	16.8	-0.44
Arron Afflalo	65	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.01	-21	11	-32	14.0	14.2	-0.22	16.9	15.5	1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
GSW 107, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	95.6%
MIN 110, DEN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%