NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	105		Excitement	9.1 [130]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): +42.9%
Golden State Warriors	111		Comeback	3.3 [651]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -13.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.14	-0.00	10	65%	0.26	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1	0.02	0.09	0.02	13	62%	0.19	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	81%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	9	52%	0.02	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	11	55%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.02,-0.09,-0.08	0.00	-0.09	-0.01	15	66%	0.16	5	-0.23	5	60%	-0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.43	0.43	0.19	0.26	0.02	15	81%	0.45	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	19	70%	0.29	2	-0.14	12	75%	0.03
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	8	69%	0.11	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ansu Sesay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	13	53%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3,-0.21,-0.31,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	0.01	14	53%	0.16	7	-0.29	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	26.6	15.8	27.4	2.4	38.0	136.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +15.1%

GSW +5.9%

GSW +16.5%

GSW +12.4%

GSW +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	13.1	15.5	99.1	105.7	104.0
season	15.1	15.0		104.8	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.4		104.7	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.8	17.2	13.3	13.9	14.2
GSW	13.4	12.3	13.4	13.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	28	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.03	-1	-5	4	16.9	13.3	3.60	13.7	12.8	0.88
Aaron Williams	7	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-5	4	13.0	14.3	-1.29	9.4	13.3	-3.92
Lamond Murray	48	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-5	4	14.1	14.3	-0.19	13.4	12.8	0.55
Eric Williams	25	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-1	-4	13.8	14.3	-0.53	12.7	13.2	-0.49
Rafael Araujo	47	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	14.7	13.8	0.93	13.2	13.0	0.27
Chris Bosh	83	85	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-10	14	13.3	17.6	-4.29	13.2	12.6	0.60
Matt Bonner	23	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	4	-14	16.0	13.7	2.23	11.0	13.6	-2.64
Jalen Rose	71	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-7	8	14.4	13.7	0.69	13.3	12.7	0.64
Morris Peterson	58	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-1	-4	14.3	14.1	0.19	12.8	13.4	-0.55
Donyell Marshall	62	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-4	2	14.5	13.9	0.59	13.9	12.0	1.91
Rafer Alston	78	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-1	-4	13.3	16.9	-3.60	12.8	13.7	-0.88

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	84	85	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-9	24	12.6	14.9	-2.27	14.9	11.5	3.35
Troy Murphy	76	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.45	6	0	6	13.1	13.1	-0.02	13.8	15.1	-1.26
Jason Richardson	99	100	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.28	9	-3	12	13.0	13.8	-0.79	14.3	13.0	1.28
Derek Fisher	93	94	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	2	2	13.0	13.7	-0.75	13.3	21.2	-7.94
Adonal Foyle	38	39	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	2	2	14.1	12.5	1.56	14.9	13.8	1.09
Eduardo Najera	28	28	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	1	4	14.4	12.6	1.73	16.7	13.3	3.46
Calbert Cheaney	18	19	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.11	5	1	4	12.1	13.3	-1.18	14.5	14.1	0.39
Ansu Sesay	2	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	6	-6	8.5	13.2	-4.67	15.0	14.2	0.82
Mickael Pietrus	23	23	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.02	-11	17	-28	14.9	12.6	2.34	13.8	14.3	-0.54
Clifford Robinson	64	64	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.13	-7	13	-20	12.5	14.0	-1.50	13.5	15.4	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.28,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.54,0.77,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 95, DAL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.43,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.24,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.77,0.73,1	91.6%
OKC 95, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.55,0.68,0.15,1	90.4%
BOS 90, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.77,0.57,1	90.3%