NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	95		Excitement	8.9 [156]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +43.1%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	5.7 [187]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -29.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.16	-0.00	9	72%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	5	71%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steven Adams	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Singler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	11	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,0.12,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	21	51%	0.11	5	-0.20	7	71%	-0.04
D.J. Augustin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3	-0.06	-0.22	0.01	18	56%	-0.01	7	-0.28	9	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.43	0.43	0.04	0.38	-0.01	21	55%	0.51	2	-0.08	9	67%	0.03
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	62%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	11	64%	0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.16	-0.02	17	44%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	9	25%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	3.3	30.6	17.6	24.1	3.5	34.4	144.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +6.9%

MIA +20.2%

OKC -14.2%

MIA +36.7%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.0	14.9	100.0	104.3	105.1
season	14.4	15.5		111.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.7	14.8	12.9	16.5	14.7
MIA	14.7	15.2	17.9	16.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	41	39	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-5	8	14.3	15.0	-0.75	16.3	15.7	0.56
Andre Roberson	61	58	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.16	5	-7	12	14.3	15.4	-1.03	17.1	14.1	2.91
Enes Kanter	41	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	14.9	14.6	0.28	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Nick Collison	18	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	2	-6	15.3	14.5	0.79	17.5	15.5	2.03
Serge Ibaka	67	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.43	8	-10	18	14.2	15.9	-1.75	16.2	15.4	0.74
Russell Westbrook	69	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.44	8	-10	18	14.2	16.0	-1.80	16.5	14.6	1.92
D.J. Augustin	26	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	8	-18	16.0	14.2	1.80	14.6	16.5	-1.92
Anthony Morrow	29	31	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	2	-6	16.1	14.1	2.08	13.7	17.1	-3.32
Kevin Durant	70	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.34	-7	5	-12	14.4	15.5	-1.07	15.9	16.1	-0.22
Dion Waiters	53	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.50	-5	3	-8	15.3	13.9	1.46	15.1	17.1	-2.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	66	70	1.10	-0.60	1.69	0.51	20	-18	38	15.5	17.1	-1.63	15.2	13.2	2.03
Goran Dragic	71	74	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.49	10	-8	18	16.0	15.9	0.06	14.3	16.0	-1.74
Gerald Green	53	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.48	-4	6	-10	16.6	15.1	1.50	15.0	14.3	0.71
Dwyane Wade	63	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	5	-8	16.5	14.8	1.76	14.5	15.1	-0.64
Justise Winslow	65	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	5	-8	16.1	15.6	0.50	14.7	14.8	-0.14
Josh McRoberts	38	37	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	-4	10	15.0	16.6	-1.66	14.8	14.6	0.19
Josh Richardson	17	17	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	1	0	12.8	16.7	-3.83	15.5	14.5	1.02
Tyler Johnson	34	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	4	-6	15.9	16.0	-0.16	15.5	14.2	1.25
Hassan Whiteside	58	58	-0.51	1.01	-1.53	-0.07	-15	17	-32	16.7	14.7	2.04	13.7	16.2	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.55,0.68,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 105, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.28,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.54,0.77,0.58,1	90.4%
DAL 94, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.4,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.57,0.42,1	90.1%
UTA 98, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.45,0.27,1	89.9%