NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	5.3 [790]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +8.7%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	1.1 [526]		LVP	Robert Horry (SAS): -11.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	19	66%	0.19	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	36%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	87%	0.10	3	-0.09	10	100%	0.07
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	74%	0.05	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Jerome James	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	8	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	11	62%	0.03	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	51%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	-0.06	0.05	24	63%	0.05	3	-0.10	14	71%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	16	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	30%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	31.0	16.4	32.4	2.7	38.0	145.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +40.1%

SEA +7.4%

SEA +3.8%

SAS -2.8%

SEA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.5	108.5	103.2	104.0
season	16.5	16.3		109.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	17.5	15.6	14.3	15.4	15.6
SAS	16.0	18.7	12.3	14.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	67	67	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-9	24	14.4	18.6	-4.22	15.9	13.6	2.27
Danny Fortson	41	39	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	-6	18	13.7	17.0	-3.29	17.1	13.9	3.25
Rashard Lewis	83	82	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	2	2	15.6	15.5	0.15	15.7	11.4	4.37
Vladimir Radmanovic	48	46	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.18	5	1	4	14.3	16.9	-2.64	14.8	15.6	-0.81
Ray Allen	85	85	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	8	-10	15.7	14.1	1.63	14.6	22.0	-7.42
Jerome James	36	39	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.16	3	3	0	17.1	14.7	2.38	14.9	15.4	-0.50
Nick Collison	26	26	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	-1	8	16.8	15.1	1.64	16.0	14.9	1.09
Luke Ridnour	57	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	11	-16	16.3	14.5	1.77	14.3	16.6	-2.31
Reggie Evans	27	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	15	-24	18.6	14.4	4.22	13.6	15.9	-2.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	12	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	15.9	15.1	0.81	16.0	15.5	0.47
Bruce Bowen	74	74	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.40	11	-17	28	14.4	18.2	-3.76	15.8	14.7	1.12
Tony Parker	69	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-15	24	14.3	17.7	-3.42	16.4	13.4	2.98
Tim Duncan	78	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.39	7	-13	20	14.8	17.5	-2.68	15.6	15.2	0.44
Rasho Nesterovic	21	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	5	-16	17.3	14.6	2.74	17.2	15.2	1.97
Robert Horry	25	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	4	-14	16.6	14.7	1.89	13.0	16.6	-3.63
Manu Ginobili	65	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-5	4	14.4	17.0	-2.60	16.0	14.7	1.35
Malik Rose	62	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-8	10	14.5	16.7	-2.19	16.1	14.5	1.65
Beno Udrih	24	25	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	9	-24	17.7	14.3	3.42	13.4	16.4	-2.98
Devin Brown	35	39	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	0.03	-21	15	-36	18.1	13.5	4.56	14.3	16.5	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.09,0.11,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 104, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.8%
MIA 103, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
DAL 108, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.03,0,0,0	93.1%