NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	4.9 [862]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +23.3%
Chicago Bulls	96		Comeback	1.5 [826]		LVP	Shaquille Harrison (CHI): -10.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.07	16	79%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	8	54%	0.12	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.04
Justise Winslow	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.05	0.03	-0.08	6	50%	0.10	3	-0.03	8	62%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	13	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	29%	-0.05
Wayne Ellington	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	13	36%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	8	19%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.02	0.05	16	75%	0.15	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	47%	0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	27	44%	0.01	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.08	18	52%	0.01	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Blakeney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	7	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.3	31.7	14.5	24.2	1.8	30.3	130.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +51.1%

CHI -3.7%

CHI -8.5%

MIA +7.0%

MIA +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.0	13.3	14.3	98.1	90.6	109.3
season	14.8	14.6		106.3	104.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	11.3	17.0	14.5	14.0
CHI	14.0	13.0	13.7	12.6	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	65	65	0.71	-0.21	0.92	-0.02	25	-18	43	13.0	15.6	-2.60	13.4	13.2	0.11
Josh Richardson	71	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.15	10	-3	13	14.6	12.7	1.90	14.1	11.7	2.34
Rodney McGruder	74	74	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	5	-3	13.4	15.3	-1.84	12.9	14.4	-1.52
Bam Adebayo	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	13.3	15.0	-1.66	12.3	14.7	-2.39
Wayne Ellington	73	73	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.38	-4	11	-15	14.9	11.8	3.09	13.0	14.1	-1.09
Hassan Whiteside	44	45	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	1	5	15.0	13.3	1.66	14.7	12.3	2.39
James Johnson	54	55	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	7	-7	15.3	12.6	2.61	14.0	12.5	1.51
Kelly Olynyk	31	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	3	1	12.1	14.8	-2.64	12.7	13.6	-0.90
Dwyane Wade	52	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.26	-9	16	-25	13.6	14.3	-0.71	13.0	13.7	-0.72

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	56	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-16	25	13.5	13.1	0.40	14.2	13.8	0.36
Shaquille Harrison	38	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-10	13	13.4	13.3	0.09	13.2	14.4	-1.28
Wendell Carter Jr.	29	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-6	5	12.2	13.7	-1.52	15.1	13.5	1.52
Cameron Payne	18	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	1	-9	11.2	13.7	-2.58	9.4	14.8	-5.37
Ryan Arcidiacono	86	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-10	13	13.3	13.1	0.20	14.9	10.1	4.81
Antonio Blakeney	42	42	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	4	-15	13.7	13.1	0.63	12.4	15.0	-2.60
Cristiano Felicio	14	13	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.18	-16	9	-25	16.4	12.8	3.51	10.5	14.5	-3.94
Zach LaVine	74	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	0	-7	13.5	12.8	0.67	14.7	12.2	2.51
Jabari Parker	88	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-6	5	12.7	16.2	-3.51	13.9	14.4	-0.43
Justin Holiday	85	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-1	-5	13.7	11.7	1.99	14.5	11.8	2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 109, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.26,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.05,0,0.01,0	94.2%
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
CHI 110, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%