NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	4.7 [919]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +14.7%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.5 [554]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -9.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	21	68%	0.22	5	-0.07	8	100%	0.02
Monta Ellis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	17	65%	0.22	6	-0.13	9	78%	-0.03
Rodney Carney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
David Lee	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.04	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.15	-0.02	0.09	13	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.01
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.04	16	56%	0.11	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.04	9	60%	0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	30.6	16.5	31.5	2.4	39.3	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +39.9%

GSW +9.4%

TOR -1.6%

TOR -0.2%

GSW +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	16.1	13.6	15.5	112.4	105.2	105.7
season	14.8	15.1		106.6	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		111.2	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.3	14.8	15.2	18.1	16.1
TOR	18.0	12.9	13.6	10.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	71	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-6	19	15.7	17.0	-1.23	14.3	11.7	2.61
Dorell Wright	66	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	0	7	16.1	15.9	0.23	14.5	11.6	2.96
David Lee	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	-1	9	15.5	17.1	-1.69	14.7	11.7	2.96
Andris Biedrins	48	51	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	-3	13	15.7	16.4	-0.66	15.2	11.9	3.30
Monta Ellis	88	87	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.40	-4	11	-15	16.3	14.1	2.15	13.5	14.4	-0.86
Brandan Wright	45	44	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	1	5	15.7	16.4	-0.65	12.5	14.5	-2.02
Rodney Carney	41	39	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.21	-1	8	-9	16.0	16.1	-0.15	11.9	14.8	-2.94
Jeremy Lin	33	32	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	4	-1	15.8	16.2	-0.37	12.8	14.0	-1.22
Vladimir Radmanovic	13	13	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	8	-9	18.6	15.7	2.95	10.4	14.1	-3.75
Reggie Williams	18	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	13	-19	18.8	15.4	3.33	9.7	14.4	-4.69

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Andersen	31	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-13	19	13.3	13.8	-0.50	15.7	16.2	-0.52
Leandro Barbosa	30	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-8	9	13.7	13.6	0.05	15.6	16.3	-0.61
Amir Johnson	63	61	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.48	13	-20	33	11.8	17.0	-5.15	16.3	15.7	0.58
Jose Calderon	20	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	1	-9	13.7	13.6	0.15	15.2	16.3	-1.09
Sonny Weems	48	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	12.0	15.3	-3.31	16.2	15.9	0.37
Jarrett Jack	77	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-8	9	13.6	13.7	-0.15	16.3	15.2	1.09
Linas Kleiza	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-5	3	13.7	13.2	0.56	16.5	14.4	2.15
Reggie Evans	33	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.20	-19	12	-31	17.2	11.8	5.38	15.4	16.4	-0.96
Andrea Bargnani	40	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	10	-27	15.6	12.3	3.31	15.4	16.5	-1.08
DeMar DeRozan	67	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	1	-9	13.6	13.7	-0.05	16.3	15.6	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.26,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.05,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 100, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0	95.1%
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
PHX 102, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	94.6%