NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	92		Excitement	4.1 [1017]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +14.8%
Sacramento Kings	109		Comeback	1.9 [859]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -13.0%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	7	89%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	70%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Melvin Ely	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	14	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	16	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.05	10	32%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tamar Slay	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	7	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	13	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	16	28%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.01	-0.03	19	64%	0.15	1	-0.00	9	100%	0.03
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	12	62%	0.08	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	12	63%	0.07	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Erik Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	14	59%	0.05	4	-0.07	18	83%	0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	12	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.6	2.5	28.5	15.6	28.1	2.5	29.5	127.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +33.6%

SAC +16.8%

SAC +5.0%

CHA -4.8%

CHA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	SAC	NBA	CHA	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	14.1	15.5	92.9	107.9	104.0
season	15.5	14.7		99.0	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.1		106.4	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.5	15.9	14.4	13.8	14.7
SAC	13.2	13.0	13.8	16.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kareem Rush	57	59	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-16	15	15.0	14.3	0.72	14.2	14.0	0.18
Keith Bogans	65	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-21	25	14.4	15.3	-0.90	14.7	12.9	1.84
Steven Smith	55	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-13	9	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.5	13.7	0.79
Melvin Ely	31	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	-6	-5	15.5	14.3	1.22	14.0	14.2	-0.23
Jason Kapono	56	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-7	-3	13.7	15.9	-2.13	14.8	13.3	1.51
Brevin Knight	60	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-12	7	14.2	15.3	-1.08	13.6	14.9	-1.29
Tamar Slay	23	22	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.20	-16	-1	-15	15.9	14.3	1.55	13.4	14.3	-0.98
Emeka Okafor	79	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	-4	-9	14.9	13.8	1.04	13.7	15.8	-2.08
Jason Hart	69	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	0.19	-29	12	-41	15.2	13.5	1.64	13.9	14.6	-0.73

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	90	87	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.07	21	-4	25	14.1	14.1	0.04	15.0	12.7	2.29
Peja Stojakovic	92	89	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	-2	21	14.4	11.2	3.19	14.9	13.1	1.75
Bobby Jackson	47	47	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.11	14	3	11	14.2	14.1	0.08	15.4	14.0	1.34
Darius Songaila	77	75	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	10	-3	14.5	13.1	1.37	14.8	14.2	0.56
Doug Christie	74	73	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	7	3	14.0	14.6	-0.58	14.5	15.2	-0.70
Mike Bibby	67	67	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	14	-11	14.1	14.2	-0.16	14.0	16.1	-2.05
Matt Barnes	20	18	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	10	-3	13.4	14.3	-0.85	16.0	14.4	1.62
Greg Ostertag	27	28	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	8	1	13.2	14.5	-1.24	14.7	14.7	0.00
Erik Daniels	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	14.3	14.1	0.21	9.7	14.8	-5.17
Maurice Evans	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	18	-19	13.8	14.1	-0.35	10.8	14.9	-4.08
Kevin Martin	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	14.3	14.1	0.21	9.7	14.8	-5.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
NJN 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SAC 91, TOR 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%