NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	86		Excitement	3.5 [1065]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +19.3%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	1.9 [1195]		LVP	Mark Strickland (ATL): -16.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.03	9	78%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Leon Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	15	47%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	62%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Cal Bowdler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	8	59%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	52%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	14	34%	-0.11	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.03	-0.02	13	82%	0.23	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	8	94%	0.12	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.05	4	83%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	8	88%	0.07	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	33%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	28.6	16.4	21.2	1.8	26.2	118.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +41.4%

ORL +4.1%

ORL +7.1%

ATL -4.8%

ORL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	18.4	13.9	15.6	96.6	112.4	102.3
season	15.5	14.6		99.7	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		103.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.9	20.1	20.0	17.0	18.4
ORL	13.7	13.5	14.2	14.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leon Smith	21	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.29	9	-23	32	16.2	19.1	-2.88	15.2	13.5	1.71
Dion Glover	45	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-17	20	17.7	19.2	-1.43	13.9	13.9	0.01
Ira Newble	16	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	-9	4	17.5	18.6	-1.14	16.2	13.4	2.84
Cal Bowdler	26	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-10	6	19.6	18.0	1.66	15.0	13.5	1.53
DerMarr Johnson	60	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-11	8	17.9	19.5	-1.60	13.9	13.9	0.04
Hanno Mottola	65	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.09	-16	2	-18	18.8	17.3	1.51	13.7	14.6	-0.89
Nazr Mohammed	61	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.20	-20	6	-26	18.8	17.6	1.21	13.6	14.7	-1.12
Mark Strickland	68	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.01	-16	2	-18	18.9	17.0	1.94	13.7	14.8	-1.10
Jacque Vaughn	83	83	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	4	-22	18.6	16.3	2.26	13.4	20.5	-7.05

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	62	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.00	20	-6	26	14.1	13.6	0.47	19.2	16.7	2.46
Tracy McGrady	51	53	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.02	17	-3	20	14.7	12.9	1.79	19.2	17.4	1.81
Darrell Armstrong	50	50	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	6	2	14.2	13.6	0.64	18.5	18.4	0.10
Mike Miller	53	53	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	7	0	14.2	13.4	0.80	18.4	18.5	-0.15
Horace Grant	46	46	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	7	0	14.2	13.7	0.48	18.6	18.2	0.40
Jud Buechler	32	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	9	-4	13.6	14.1	-0.46	18.4	18.4	-0.03
Troy Hudson	28	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.19	13	1	12	12.6	14.5	-1.87	20.0	17.7	2.33
Don Reid	34	36	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	7	0	12.5	14.8	-2.30	19.1	18.0	1.08
Andrew DeClercq	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	14	-14	14.3	13.8	0.52	17.0	18.9	-1.94
Monty Williams	42	41	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	15	-16	12.8	14.9	-2.11	17.6	19.2	-1.58
Steven Hunter	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	20	-26	15.5	13.7	1.80	14.6	19.0	-4.46
Jeryl Sasser	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	21	-28	15.9	13.6	2.27	14.2	19.0	-4.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 92, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
NJN 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MIA 83, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%