NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	9.7 [90]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +16.7%
Detroit Pistons	78		Comeback	3.4 [566]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -30.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.16	0.02	0.14	0.00	7	50%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	46%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	9	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	17	42%	-0.04	2	-0.17	6	83%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.29	-0.06	-0.23	-0.00	8	37%	-0.09	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.24,-0.21,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.25,-0.29,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.23	-0.09	-0.02	17	48%	0.01	8	-0.31	16	50%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.19,-0.14,-0.37,0.17	0.17	-0.11	0.27	-0.01	19	50%	0.48	5	-0.32	10	100%	0.14
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.12	-0.06	9	38%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.12
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	30%	-0.06	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	11	31%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.26	-0.26	-0.02	-0.24	0.00	11	54%	-0.07	2	-0.20	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	4.3	33.0	17.7	30.4	2.8	44.7	161.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +6.9%

DET +11.3%

DET +17.3%

DET +1.1%

DET +13.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	16.7	15.5	85.6	87.6	104.0
season	15.7	16.7		107.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	17.0	15.0	15.5	15.5
DET	19.3	14.3	16.9	16.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	26	26	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.00	8	-9	17	14.9	15.7	-0.85	16.1	16.9	-0.82
Shandon Anderson	12	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	0	-1	14.9	15.6	-0.66	15.5	16.9	-1.45
Michael Doleac	21	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	3	-7	16.7	15.1	1.60	13.0	17.7	-4.70
Dwyane Wade	79	79	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-2	3	15.9	12.7	3.15	17.0	14.4	2.59
Rasual Butler	43	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-6	11	13.7	17.1	-3.43	19.8	14.1	5.67
Shaquille O'Neal	69	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.53	3	-4	7	15.1	16.7	-1.60	17.7	13.0	4.70
Damon Jones	55	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	1	-3	16.3	14.3	2.02	15.1	19.3	-4.25
Eddie Jones	81	79	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.47	-6	5	-11	15.6	14.3	1.28	16.2	21.0	-4.85
Udonis Haslem	64	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.47	-9	8	-17	15.7	14.9	0.85	16.9	16.1	0.82

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	81	83	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-5	11	16.7	17.1	-0.47	15.5	15.3	0.22
Rasheed Wallace	63	66	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.57	2	-1	3	16.5	17.2	-0.75	15.4	15.8	-0.47
Tayshaun Prince	54	55	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.53	3	-2	5	16.5	17.0	-0.50	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Antonio McDyess	47	47	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.60	0	1	-1	16.7	16.6	0.10	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Chauncey Billups	75	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	0	1	17.0	14.9	2.10	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Derrick Coleman	18	16	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	0	1	16.1	16.8	-0.73	16.9	15.2	1.69
Darvin Ham	3	4	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	0	1	6.7	17.0	-10.38	12.7	15.6	-2.87
Smush Parker	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	1	-1	16.9	16.6	0.23	15.3	15.6	-0.28
Darko Milicic	16	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	0	1	15.2	17.0	-1.84	16.2	15.3	0.93
Elden Campbell	31	31	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.15	-3	4	-7	19.2	15.4	3.78	15.6	15.4	0.24
Lindsey Hunter	29	29	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.10	-7	8	-15	16.2	16.9	-0.78	16.8	14.9	1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.24,0.46,0.47,0.29,0.55,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 99, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.29,0.55,0.73,1	92.3%
POR 97, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.85,1	92.0%
WAS 107, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.46,0.47,0.29,0.36,0.55,0.73,1	91.8%