NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	6.7 [498]		MVP	Lamond Murray (TOR): +30.0%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	75.9 [28]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -33.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	4	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	9	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	11	38%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	15	38%	-0.06	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.33	-0.11	-0.23	-0.01	19	49%	-0.26	3	-0.07	15	67%	-0.09

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.22,0.3	0.30	0.08	0.24	0.02	7	93%	0.35	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.04	0.02	7	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.04	17	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jerome Moiso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	9	22%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.13	-0.01	16	48%	-0.06	1	-0.12	10	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	3.5	29.6	17.4	27.4	2.4	36.5	140.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +56.5%

SAS -2.8%

TOR +7.6%

SAS -8.2%

SAS -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	16.8	15.1	15.5	101.1	105.5	104.0
season	16.3	15.1		105.8	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.6		106.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	15.7	17.3	17.9	16.8
TOR	13.8	16.3	17.0	13.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	38	38	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.12	4	-9	13	17.9	15.9	2.02	16.8	13.8	3.02
Devin Brown	21	18	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.05	6	-11	17	15.1	17.3	-2.19	15.7	14.9	0.76
Beno Udrih	20	21	0.10	-0.59	0.69	0.04	2	-7	9	18.9	16.2	2.73	14.5	15.2	-0.69
Malik Rose	25	24	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-5	5	16.1	17.0	-0.97	15.6	14.9	0.72
Rasho Nesterovic	46	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	-1	-3	18.1	15.4	2.63	14.4	15.9	-1.54
Tim Duncan	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-6	7	16.9	16.4	0.41	15.5	13.0	2.49
Robert Horry	34	33	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	1	-7	15.6	17.5	-1.82	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Tony Parker	70	70	-0.59	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	2	-9	16.2	18.9	-2.73	15.2	14.5	0.69
Manu Ginobili	69	71	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.26	-16	11	-27	16.8	16.7	0.08	14.5	17.0	-2.56
Brent Barry	53	55	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.59	-5	0	-5	16.4	17.3	-0.88	14.4	16.1	-1.75

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamond Murray	38	37	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.32	19	-14	33	14.1	15.8	-1.68	18.3	15.7	2.63
Milt Palacio	38	37	0.80	-0.29	1.09	0.41	13	-8	21	13.9	15.9	-1.99	17.4	16.4	0.97
Rafer Alston	76	76	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.22	16	-11	27	15.1	14.7	0.46	16.8	16.4	0.41
Morris Peterson	52	51	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.41	8	-3	11	14.6	15.6	-0.98	17.4	16.0	1.37
Chris Bosh	83	83	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-3	11	15.0	15.6	-0.62	16.7	17.6	-0.86
Jerome Moiso	8	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	8	-11	15.6	15.0	0.62	17.6	16.7	0.86
Jalen Rose	48	48	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	9	-13	14.9	15.2	-0.29	15.6	18.1	-2.43
Matt Bonner	22	22	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.12	-12	17	-29	14.7	15.2	-0.49	16.3	16.9	-0.61
Loren Woods	46	45	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.05	-7	12	-19	16.1	14.0	2.04	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Vince Carter	44	44	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.02	-13	18	-31	16.5	13.7	2.89	16.0	17.5	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.37,0.67,0.95,1	90.6%
CHI 110, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	90.2%
DEN 106, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.54,0.78,0.92,1	90.1%