NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.8 [470]		MVP	Lamar Odom (LAC): +28.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	110		Comeback	21.8 [32]		LVP	Tyrone Nesby (LAC): -9.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Herren	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	14	57%	0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	9	39%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.09	-0.01	17	77%	0.30	8	-0.36	6	50%	-0.02
Chris Gatling	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	12	59%	0.02	3	-0.11	8	87%	-0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.28,0.28,0.29	0.29	0.07	0.21	-0.01	15	66%	0.33	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.22	0.06	0.03	15	86%	0.27	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Jeff McInnis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	67%	0.09	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Avent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	11	69%	0.13	5	-0.15	7	71%	-0.03
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	14	44%	-0.05	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	10	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.7	27.0	15.4	24.5	1.5	38.7	131.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +0.9%

LAC +18.9%

DEN -5.5%

LAC +30.0%

LAC +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	14.2	16.0	15.2	110.4	115.8	101.7
season	14.8	15.6		101.5	95.5
opponent	14.3	15.0		107.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	14.4	13.5	15.7	14.2
LAC	15.7	19.9	15.3	13.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Herren	38	39	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-9	14	13.7	14.5	-0.84	16.4	15.7	0.61
Popeye Jones	13	13	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-11	18	14.5	14.1	0.34	21.7	15.1	6.59
Raef LaFrentz	36	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.09	-4	0	-4	13.9	14.3	-0.49	17.0	15.4	1.65
James Posey	70	70	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.12	-7	3	-10	13.6	15.6	-1.93	16.9	13.5	3.42
Antonio McDyess	78	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	13.9	15.2	-1.30	15.2	19.6	-4.46
George McCloud	64	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-4	4	14.9	12.8	2.08	15.5	16.9	-1.37
Keon Clark	56	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	14.0	14.4	-0.49	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Nick Van Exel	60	59	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.44	-7	3	-10	14.5	13.5	1.02	15.3	17.1	-1.74
Chris Gatling	65	64	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.46	-8	4	-12	14.6	13.3	1.25	15.3	17.5	-2.20

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Taylor	79	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-5	14	16.2	15.1	1.05	14.3	13.3	1.07
Jeff McInnis	12	13	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-2	8	16.4	15.9	0.48	15.8	13.9	1.85
Lamar Odom	88	90	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.38	4	0	4	15.7	20.3	-4.63	14.1	15.3	-1.24
Derek Anderson	66	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	3	-2	15.9	16.1	-0.20	14.7	12.9	1.80
Eric Piatkowski	77	75	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-2	8	15.7	17.2	-1.51	14.0	14.9	-0.94
Tyrone Nesby	54	54	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.15	9	-5	14	16.6	15.2	1.37	14.4	13.9	0.42
Pete Chilcutt	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	2	0	16.7	15.6	1.11	12.5	15.0	-2.47
Anthony Avent	4	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	5	-6	9.0	16.3	-7.31	9.7	14.4	-4.61
Michael Olowokandi	62	62	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.39	-16	20	-36	16.1	15.7	0.42	14.4	13.8	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.54,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.37,0.67,0.95,1	91.9%
CHI 74, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.39,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.46,0.55,0.91,1	91.4%
HOU 98, NYK 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.41,0.31,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.55,0.65,0.84,1	91.2%