NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	78		Excitement	7.6 [341]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (POR): +13.6%
Golden State Warriors	75		Comeback	3.2 [231]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -20.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.28,0.22,0.14	0.05	0.08	0.00	16	62%	0.29	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	75%	0.13	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	13	38%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.13	0.01	-0.02	16	34%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Darius Miles	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	7	45%	-0.03	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.06
Damon Stoudamire	-0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	9	28%	-0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.07	-0.00	6	56%	0.11	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.09	-0.09	0.05	-0.14	-0.01	15	57%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	0.00	2	33%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.19
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	5	33%	-0.10	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.21,-0.17,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	17	37%	-0.12	2	-0.08	6	17%	-0.06
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.06	17	29%	-0.11	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	31.3	17.4	21.6	2.4	34.2	132.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +57.4%

POR +8.3%

GSW -9.3%

GSW -8.6%

POR +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	GSW	NBA	POR	GSW	NBA
this game	16.4	15.3	15.5	85.7	82.4	104.0
season	15.8	15.0		101.2	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.6		104.7	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.3	16.2	18.3	16.9	16.4
GSW	15.1	13.2	13.8	20.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	32	32	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.46	8	-5	13	14.7	17.3	-2.58	16.0	14.9	1.15
Zach Randolph	82	81	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-3	9	16.7	13.1	3.61	15.2	15.6	-0.35
Darius Miles	52	52	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	0	3	16.7	16.0	0.68	15.5	14.9	0.59
Nick Van Exel	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	-2	7	17.7	15.1	2.60	16.3	14.3	1.96
Derek Anderson	80	78	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.31	-2	5	-7	16.6	14.5	2.17	14.8	18.2	-3.35
Damon Stoudamire	62	65	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	4	-5	16.3	16.4	-0.08	15.6	14.4	1.21
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	56	57	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	3	-3	15.1	18.3	-3.22	14.9	15.9	-0.95
Theo Ratliff	47	46	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	16.4	16.4	-0.00	14.3	16.2	-1.90

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	33	33	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.09	8	-11	19	14.6	15.7	-1.07	19.4	14.7	4.71
Calbert Cheaney	37	37	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-6	9	14.7	15.7	-0.94	16.0	16.6	-0.66
Mike Dunleavy	60	61	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-5	7	14.4	17.0	-2.65	16.7	15.6	1.14
Troy Murphy	67	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.39	7	-10	17	15.1	15.9	-0.80	17.1	14.3	2.76
Adonal Foyle	23	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	7	-17	17.2	14.6	2.59	14.2	17.1	-2.87
Speedy Claxton	53	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-1	-1	15.4	15.2	0.17	16.5	16.2	0.23
Eduardo Najera	20	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	4	-11	15.1	15.3	-0.24	15.9	16.5	-0.60
Derek Fisher	48	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-3	3	15.3	15.3	0.01	17.0	15.7	1.26
Jason Richardson	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	4	-11	16.2	11.9	4.29	16.1	17.3	-1.20
Clifford Robinson	42	41	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	6	-15	15.3	15.2	0.09	13.6	18.6	-4.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.57,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.36,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0	93.1%
LAC 103, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.05,0	92.2%
BOS 110, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.35,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.27,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	92.1%