NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	4.6 [894]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.5%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	1.6 [906]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -16.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	12	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	15	56%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Vlade Divac	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	16	41%	-0.05	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	16	40%	-0.04	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.00	16	74%	0.22	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.00	10	80%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	10	61%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	63%	0.06	4	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	0.03	10	52%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	26.4	16.5	25.3	2.5	28.5	124.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.4%

SAC -4.5%

SAC -0.2%

SAS +3.9%

SAS +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.3	15.7	97.8	117.6	100.5
season	14.7	15.9		106.9	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.8	15.4	16.6	16.1	15.4
SAS	15.0	15.2	16.1	19.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	75	76	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-13	8	14.9	17.7	-2.78	16.9	12.9	3.97
Gerald Wallace	10	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-15	12	16.6	15.2	1.35	16.2	16.3	-0.06
Peja Stojakovic	73	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-10	2	15.2	16.3	-1.10	16.8	14.2	2.58
Vlade Divac	65	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	-12	6	15.5	15.1	0.45	15.1	19.2	-4.17
Chris Webber	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.04	-12	-6	-6	15.1	16.7	-1.58	16.7	14.1	2.63
Darius Songaila	41	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-8	-2	16.4	14.6	1.77	17.0	15.7	1.33
Anthony Peeler	43	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.18	-22	4	-26	15.7	15.1	0.53	15.9	16.6	-0.69
Mike Bibby	75	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.18	-24	6	-30	15.4	15.2	0.25	15.4	20.3	-4.89

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	48	47	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.17	26	-8	34	16.1	16.5	-0.40	16.6	14.2	2.39
Tony Parker	73	71	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.03	13	5	8	15.9	17.6	-1.62	15.4	15.4	-0.01
Robert Horry	35	35	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	11	-4	16.8	15.9	0.94	15.5	15.3	0.15
Bruce Bowen	73	73	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	9	0	16.4	15.8	0.52	15.4	15.3	0.15
Rasho Nesterovic	60	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	15	-12	15.4	17.9	-2.55	15.2	15.7	-0.48
Malik Rose	16	15	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.12	12	6	6	14.0	16.7	-2.73	17.1	15.1	2.00
Tim Duncan	68	67	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	12	-6	17.1	13.8	3.31	15.5	15.1	0.37
Hedo Turkoglu	48	51	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	8	2	15.5	17.0	-1.50	14.8	16.1	-1.26
Devin Brown	25	24	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	15	-12	17.4	15.8	1.58	14.7	15.6	-0.93
Jason Hart	9	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	17	-16	20.9	15.7	5.14	11.7	15.9	-4.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.77,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1	95.5%
NJN 93, CHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.85,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	95.2%
UTA 81, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%