NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	6.4 [520]		MVP	Caron Butler (MIA): +4.8%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	1.0 [1076]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -26.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Lamar Odom	0.01	0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	11	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	17	40%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27	-0.15	-0.11	0.01	12	44%	-0.09	5	-0.18	8	75%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	69%	0.05	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	21	46%	0.04	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	73%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	80%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Scot Pollard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	16	37%	-0.14	4	-0.10	17	71%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.7	30.2	16.3	32.4	2.4	36.3	145.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +12.6%

IND +27.8%

IND +2.5%

IND +2.7%

IND +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.6	16.7	15.7	90.9	96.7	100.5
season	16.2	16.7		99.3	101.1
opponent	15.7	15.9		94.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	16.6	14.0	15.8	15.6
IND	15.2	15.4	18.0	18.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	12	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-5	3	12.7	16.1	-3.34	16.3	16.8	-0.44
Caron Butler	54	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-7	7	15.2	16.3	-1.12	16.9	16.4	0.46
Lamar Odom	35	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-3	-1	16.5	15.1	1.36	17.9	15.9	1.96
Malik Allen	38	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-3	-1	14.9	16.2	-1.35	14.4	18.4	-4.01
Rasual Butler	27	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	0	-7	16.4	15.3	1.11	13.0	18.5	-5.42
Dwyane Wade	67	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.28	2	-9	11	15.5	16.1	-0.60	16.8	16.4	0.37
Brian Grant	47	50	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	16.9	14.2	2.70	17.6	15.6	1.91
Udonis Haslem	42	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	15.4	15.9	-0.53	18.1	15.6	2.55
Eddie Jones	72	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-4	1	15.6	15.7	-0.14	17.4	13.6	3.78
Rafer Alston	46	47	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.23	-13	6	-19	15.7	15.6	0.08	16.5	17.0	-0.46

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	2	3	16.7	16.7	-0.03	15.7	15.1	0.59
Anthony Johnson	33	34	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-4	15	18.1	15.9	2.13	15.9	15.5	0.40
Jeff Foster	53	52	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.32	1	6	-5	15.6	18.3	-2.69	15.6	15.6	-0.00
Fred Jones	44	43	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	16.2	17.2	-0.90	15.2	16.1	-0.93
Jermaine O'Neal	63	62	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.31	0	7	-7	17.7	14.4	3.34	15.6	15.7	-0.08
Al Harrington	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	3	1	16.4	17.1	-0.64	15.7	15.6	0.07
Reggie Miller	45	44	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	7	-7	17.0	16.4	0.67	16.0	15.3	0.64
Scot Pollard	10	10	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	0	7	14.1	17.0	-2.94	16.5	15.5	0.97
Jamaal Tinsley	57	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	11	-15	15.9	18.1	-2.13	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Austin Croshere	18	16	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	3	1	19.0	16.1	2.86	15.1	15.8	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.52,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.67,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 96, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.88,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	93.7%
VAN 94, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.8,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.91,0.81,0.9,0.96,1,1	93.6%
LAL 92, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	93.5%