NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	5.5 [704]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +18.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	1.3 [489]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -14.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.05	0.02	16	72%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.06	-0.03	12	58%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	20	63%	0.10	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.03
Nene	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	11	70%	0.10	3	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	8	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Doleac	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.18	0.01	0.07	13	89%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	11	75%	0.15	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	14	59%	0.10	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.03
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	8	55%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Marcus Haislip	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	7	35%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	15	44%	-0.11	1	-0.04	13	85%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	29.6	16.3	29.3	1.8	30.6	135.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.1%

MIL -5.4%

MIL -13.0%

DEN +14.9%

MIL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.8	15.7	124.5	118.1	100.5
season	14.9	15.3		101.6	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	18.3	13.6	16.7	15.8
MIL	14.8	16.9	15.2	12.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	82	83	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-2	10	15.6	17.7	-2.19	14.5	17.1	-2.60
Marcus Camby	79	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.28	5	1	4	15.3	18.6	-3.28	14.5	16.7	-2.25
Andre Miller	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	2	2	15.4	17.4	-2.05	14.9	14.6	0.31
Rodney White	23	23	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-7	20	15.8	15.9	-0.08	15.9	14.4	1.48
Nene	71	70	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	-6	18	16.2	14.8	1.40	15.6	12.6	2.97
Earl Boykins	49	48	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.28	0	6	-6	15.8	15.9	-0.18	13.7	15.9	-2.23
Michael Doleac	36	37	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	6	-6	16.5	15.4	1.11	14.4	15.1	-0.65
Ryan Bowen	17	16	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.26	-7	13	-20	17.0	15.6	1.42	14.7	14.8	-0.13
Voshon Lenard	41	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	11	-16	16.7	15.2	1.54	15.7	14.1	1.57

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	23	23	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-10	14	15.3	14.6	0.73	16.1	15.7	0.38
Marcus Haislip	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-11	16	3.0	15.1	-12.05	12.0	15.9	-3.92
Keith Van Horn	69	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-7	8	14.6	15.2	-0.60	16.5	14.0	2.47
Damon Jones	63	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-8	10	14.5	15.4	-0.83	16.2	15.1	1.11
Joe Smith	56	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-7	8	13.9	16.2	-2.28	15.2	16.7	-1.50
Brevin Knight	31	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	2	-10	15.4	14.5	0.83	15.1	16.2	-1.11
Dan Gadzuric	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	3	-12	15.5	14.1	1.41	16.5	15.2	1.33
Toni Kukoc	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	5	-16	16.4	13.5	2.91	16.1	15.6	0.45
Michael Redd	69	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	14.4	15.9	-1.53	15.0	18.4	-3.46
Desmond Mason	71	71	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	5	-16	14.8	14.7	0.08	16.0	15.3	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.22,0.36,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, BOS 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	94.3%
GSW 116, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
PHI 100, LAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%