NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	6.3 [549]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +13.7%
Indiana Pacers	97		Comeback	1.4 [869]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -16.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	-0.02	-0.01	10	78%	0.14	1	-0.03	12	83%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.13	0.02	0.08	11	87%	0.17	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03
Loren Woods	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	7	62%	-0.07	2	-0.06	10	50%	-0.14
Rafer Alston	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.02	13	52%	-0.02	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.01	0.02	7	107%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	3	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	21	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	0.00	0.01	20	38%	-0.12	1	-0.04	13	92%	0.04
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	28.2	16.7	30.4	1.7	36.2	140.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -15.6%

IND +11.8%

IND +43.1%

IND +9.5%

IND +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	17.4	15.7	107.1	114.1	100.5
season	16.2	16.7		99.3	101.1
opponent	15.7	15.9		94.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	18.5	14.5	15.5	16.4
IND	15.7	20.5	16.2	18.0	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	10	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	18.1	16.2	1.87	19.6	17.2	2.37
Malik Allen	48	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-4	2	15.6	17.5	-1.89	17.5	17.4	0.09
Brian Grant	58	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-6	6	16.9	15.6	1.31	17.7	16.8	0.90
Eddie Jones	74	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-6	6	16.4	16.9	-0.53	17.3	18.4	-1.14
John Wallace	21	19	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	0	-6	16.4	16.5	-0.09	19.1	17.0	2.15
Dwyane Wade	45	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-7	8	15.8	17.2	-1.37	18.8	15.8	2.94
Udonis Haslem	24	25	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	5	-16	17.8	15.9	1.87	14.9	18.5	-3.62
Rafer Alston	66	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	16.6	15.9	0.71	17.0	19.1	-2.06
Lamar Odom	79	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.36	-5	-1	-4	16.3	17.8	-1.49	17.1	22.6	-5.49

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	48	47	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-7	20	18.5	16.1	2.45	16.7	16.2	0.48
Austin Croshere	32	31	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-6	18	21.2	15.2	5.97	17.9	15.6	2.29
Fred Jones	34	33	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-5	16	21.1	15.0	6.09	17.4	15.8	1.60
Metta World Peace	79	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	1	4	17.1	22.5	-5.45	16.1	21.2	-5.08
Scot Pollard	26	27	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-5	16	20.9	15.9	5.02	18.4	15.6	2.82
Jeff Foster	52	52	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	8	-10	14.9	21.4	-6.52	15.0	18.7	-3.63
Jermaine O'Neal	66	66	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.23	-8	14	-22	16.7	19.9	-3.24	16.5	16.2	0.30
Reggie Miller	51	52	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	11	-16	15.0	21.1	-6.09	15.8	17.4	-1.60
Jamaal Tinsley	37	38	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.07	-7	13	-20	16.1	18.5	-2.45	16.2	16.7	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 98, BOS 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.72,0.85,0.95,1	93.8%
DAL 92, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.83,0.75,0.84,0.96,0.96,1	93.4%
ATL 86, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.85,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.0%