NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	9.4 [87]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +30.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	4.1 [377]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -66.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.25	-0.04	0.28	-0.01	5	36%	0.25	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0.19	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.02	-0.00	15	81%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	5	79%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	4	70%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.29	-0.09	-0.20	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	6	-0.35	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.67	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.34,-0.67	-0.09	-0.58	-0.00	21	43%	-0.56	1	-0.11	9	22%	-0.31

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.09,0.3	0.30	0.05	0.27	0.01	20	52%	0.33	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.04	0.01	12	76%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.08
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00	9	64%	0.10	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	35%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.19	-0.01	13	37%	-0.15	1	-0.12	4	25%	-0.06
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.31	-0.31	-0.09	-0.22	0.00	5	43%	-0.11	3	-0.20	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	28.5	15.5	28.8	0.6	41.7	139.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.1%

MIL +19.9%

SAS -4.3%

MIL +17.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.9	15.7	101.1	100.0	100.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.1	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.3	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	15.4	15.5	16.0	15.4
MIL	16.6	12.9	19.5	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	42	44	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.21	15	-16	31	14.5	16.2	-1.64	17.5	14.4	3.09
Kevin Willis	8	8	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.04	5	-6	11	14.6	15.5	-0.86	13.4	16.1	-2.75
Manu Ginobili	63	63	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.39	12	-13	25	14.9	16.6	-1.73	17.4	12.7	4.71
Tony Parker	62	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.53	12	-13	25	15.3	15.7	-0.42	17.3	12.8	4.55
Malik Rose	25	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	6	-13	15.7	15.3	0.43	14.8	16.3	-1.48
Ron Mercer	13	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	10	-21	16.1	15.3	0.78	10.7	16.9	-6.23
Charlie Ward	29	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.06	-13	12	-25	15.7	15.3	0.42	12.8	17.3	-4.55
Bruce Bowen	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.61	9	-10	19	15.6	14.9	0.72	17.1	12.9	4.23
Devin Brown	39	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	11	-23	15.7	15.2	0.54	13.5	17.8	-4.28
Robert Horry	29	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	3	-7	15.9	15.2	0.77	13.8	16.9	-3.13
Tim Duncan	78	79	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.41	-11	10	-21	15.7	13.8	1.82	16.4	13.1	3.32

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	43	44	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.78	5	-4	9	18.7	13.5	5.13	15.2	15.6	-0.44
Tim Thomas	83	80	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-9	19	16.2	13.1	3.13	15.5	14.4	1.19
T.J. Ford	57	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.49	5	-4	9	17.7	13.1	4.58	15.7	15.0	0.70
Michael Redd	64	64	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.54	-10	11	-21	17.1	13.2	3.95	15.3	15.6	-0.26
Daniel Santiago	11	11	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	-6	13	11.7	16.5	-4.72	15.7	15.4	0.36
Desmond Mason	39	38	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	-1	3	13.2	17.9	-4.72	15.2	15.5	-0.29
Brian Skinner	63	59	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	3	-5	17.3	12.8	4.52	15.7	14.9	0.72
Toni Kukoc	51	49	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	2	-3	13.5	18.8	-5.23	15.4	15.4	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	18	19	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	8	-15	13.4	16.5	-3.04	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Damon Jones	36	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	5	-9	13.1	17.7	-4.58	15.0	15.7	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.36,0.35,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 103, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.46,0.43,0.58,1	91.6%
BOS 105, NOP 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.73,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	90.8%
SAS 99, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.74,1	90.6%