NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Excitement	9.6 [85]		MVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): +41.8%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	3.4 [313]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (DEN): -16.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	23	60%	0.24	3	-0.09	17	71%	-0.07
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	20	53%	0.09	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	53%	0.03	3	-0.09	6	67%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	5	33%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Kevin Martin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	5	30%	0.00	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.42	0.42	0.22	0.21	0.01	19	83%	0.51	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.04
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.17	0.17	-0.08	0.25	-0.01	14	37%	0.22	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	-0.00	7	44%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	54%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	53%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	8	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.12
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	9	22%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	3.6	32.8	16.8	28.2	2.8	41.5	148.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +74.7%

OKC -29.2%

OKC -15.3%

DEN +21.4%

OKC -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	13.8	15.4	99.0	100.0	104.1
season	14.8	14.4		109.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.0	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.3	14.5	14.7	12.6	13.8
DEN	13.4	12.2	13.0	16.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	47	49	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-7	12	13.3	14.2	-0.87	13.8	13.7	0.14
Thabo Sefolosha	79	81	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.42	14	-16	30	13.2	15.7	-2.48	14.6	10.8	3.85
Derek Fisher	12	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	5	-12	15.6	13.6	2.02	10.9	14.1	-3.21
Russell Westbrook	80	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.40	6	-8	14	13.2	15.9	-2.70	14.4	11.5	2.93
Kevin Durant	86	87	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.53	10	-12	22	13.3	15.9	-2.60	14.1	12.2	1.93
Kevin Martin	52	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	10	-22	14.4	13.2	1.21	13.8	13.7	0.17
Nick Collison	47	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	8	-18	14.6	13.2	1.38	13.1	14.2	-1.14
Serge Ibaka	82	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.50	-2	0	-2	13.9	13.4	0.55	13.4	15.1	-1.71
Reggie Jackson	35	33	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.33	-14	12	-26	15.5	12.9	2.59	11.6	14.7	-3.14

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	82	80	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.34	18	-16	34	12.8	17.3	-4.54	13.8	13.7	0.12
Andre Miller	55	57	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.26	13	-11	24	14.1	13.4	0.73	14.4	13.1	1.30
Danilo Gallinari	46	46	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.70	-4	6	-10	14.7	13.1	1.62	14.4	13.3	1.14
Ty Lawson	80	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	3	-4	14.1	12.8	1.26	13.3	15.4	-2.16
Andre Iguodala	81	81	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	7	-12	13.7	14.1	-0.42	13.1	16.3	-3.22
JaVale McGee	37	34	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	0	2	12.4	14.5	-2.14	14.6	13.4	1.17
Corey Brewer	54	53	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	-4	10	13.2	14.3	-1.07	14.8	12.7	2.10
Kenneth Faried	39	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	13	-24	14.5	13.3	1.24	13.4	14.0	-0.61
Kosta Koufos	50	50	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.11	-8	10	-18	15.1	12.5	2.55	13.1	14.4	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.46,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.36,0.35,0.72,1	91.6%
CLE 94, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.42,1	91.3%
BOS 105, NOP 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.73,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	91.1%