NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	6.6 [476]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +6.2%
Sacramento Kings	90		Comeback	1.0 [988]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -20.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	15	70%	0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	17	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	9	46%	-0.05	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	-0.00	7	44%	-0.05	1	-0.10	2	50%	-0.05
Rafer Alston	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	16	38%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.06	-0.15	0.00	3	44%	-0.03	2	-0.18	3	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.03	-0.04	13	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	13	67%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.06
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	15	62%	0.06	0	0.00	9	89%	0.05
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	55%	0.00	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.7	24.3	15.7	25.6	2.6	35.3	127.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +42.0%

SAC +15.2%

MIA -31.1%

SAC +19.9%

SAC +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	18.8	16.1	15.7	104.9	108.4	100.5
season	16.2	14.7		99.3	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	20.6	20.3	17.1	17.4	18.8
SAC	14.7	15.7	17.1	16.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bimbo Coles	8	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-4	4	19.9	18.7	1.17	14.7	16.2	-1.52
Malik Allen	34	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-9	14	18.3	19.2	-0.94	15.9	16.3	-0.44
Udonis Haslem	22	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.25	2	-6	8	18.5	18.9	-0.43	16.6	15.9	0.68
Caron Butler	38	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-5	6	18.2	19.3	-1.08	16.4	15.9	0.51
Loren Woods	26	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	3	-10	21.0	17.8	3.25	17.3	15.6	1.66
Brian Grant	71	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-4	4	18.4	21.4	-2.94	16.2	15.5	0.75
Eddie Jones	73	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	0	-4	18.9	18.4	0.42	16.0	17.1	-1.12
Rafer Alston	74	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	0	-4	18.7	19.9	-1.17	16.2	14.7	1.52
Lamar Odom	64	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	9	-22	19.0	18.0	1.05	15.5	18.2	-2.66

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	73	72	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-10	24	15.7	18.9	-3.17	19.1	16.6	2.53
Vlade Divac	57	56	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.24	14	-10	24	16.2	15.9	0.27	19.2	18.0	1.20
Mike Bibby	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.29	12	-8	20	15.8	17.2	-1.36	19.0	18.4	0.58
Brad Miller	80	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	0	4	16.2	12.3	3.92	18.5	24.5	-5.97
Doug Christie	63	62	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	4	-4	16.5	14.8	1.66	18.3	20.4	-2.16
Bobby Jackson	31	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	11	-18	15.7	16.3	-0.64	18.9	18.8	0.14
Anthony Peeler	19	19	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	12	-20	17.2	15.8	1.36	18.4	19.0	-0.58
Tony Massenburg	28	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	13	-22	16.1	16.1	-0.06	19.1	18.6	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.84,0.92,1	92.4%
PHI 98, LAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.82,1	92.2%
GSW 91, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.47,0.47,0.63,0.69,0.73,1	92.1%