NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	7.3 [347]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +22.4%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	1.5 [786]		LVP	Calbert Cheaney (GSW): -15.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	10	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Richardson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.04,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.03	-0.02	0.06	0.00	14	50%	0.14	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.06	0.01	16	47%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	58%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.10	0.04	-0.01	13	50%	0.05	5	-0.09	4	25%	-0.06
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	7	41%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.10
Calbert Cheaney	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	12	38%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.18

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.11	-0.00	15	72%	0.27	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.06
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	65%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.04
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.15	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	15	49%	0.06	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.06
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	11	47%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	542.0	2.0	27.8	15.7	24.4	2.3	38.5	652.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -15.3%

DEN +60.0%

DEN +0.4%

GSW -0.4%

DEN +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	15.9	15.7	100.0	105.4	100.5
season	16.1	14.9		100.8	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.1	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.1	15.9	15.0	15.5	15.4
DEN	17.6	14.8	15.6	15.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Speedy Claxton	22	24	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.08	6	-13	19	16.1	15.2	0.93	17.0	15.6	1.41
Mickael Pietrus	7	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-5	3	15.3	15.4	-0.11	17.0	15.8	1.19
Sean Lampley	4	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	18.5	15.2	3.26	8.7	16.2	-7.49
Calbert Cheaney	57	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-8	9	15.9	14.6	1.32	17.6	12.8	4.85
Mike Dunleavy	40	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-5	3	14.5	16.1	-1.62	13.3	17.9	-4.59
Erick Dampier	74	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-10	13	15.4	15.4	-0.03	16.1	15.1	1.02
Brian Cardinal	32	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	0	-7	15.4	15.4	-0.01	14.9	16.5	-1.58
Clifford Robinson	76	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.31	-8	1	-9	15.4	15.3	0.06	16.2	14.7	1.49
Jason Richardson	67	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.36	-7	0	-7	15.5	15.2	0.30	16.1	15.3	0.81
Nick Van Exel	76	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.16	-15	8	-23	15.1	17.0	-1.93	15.6	17.4	-1.83

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	74	74	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.22	16	-9	25	15.5	17.6	-2.16	15.0	17.1	-2.06
Marcus Camby	54	54	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-8	23	16.2	15.6	0.60	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Andre Miller	74	73	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-10	27	15.5	17.4	-1.83	14.9	17.5	-2.64
Carmelo Anthony	78	77	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-7	21	15.3	18.9	-3.60	15.1	17.1	-2.08
Voshon Lenard	74	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-7	21	14.9	19.7	-4.80	15.2	16.3	-1.12
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	10	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	9	-11	20.3	15.4	4.91	17.8	15.1	2.66
Ryan Bowen	6	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	11	-15	20.8	15.6	5.26	18.0	15.2	2.80
Chris Andersen	23	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	14	-21	13.3	16.8	-3.41	16.0	15.2	0.75
Earl Boykins	19	18	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.12	-8	15	-23	17.4	15.5	1.83	17.5	14.9	2.64
Jon Barry	30	27	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	16	-25	19.1	14.4	4.70	16.6	14.9	1.66
Francisco Elson	23	21	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.11	-11	18	-29	17.1	15.5	1.56	16.4	15.1	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.47,0.47,0.63,0.69,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 90, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.73,1	92.6%
MIA 86, SAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.95,1	92.1%
CHA 87, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.99,1	91.8%