NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	103		Excitement	4.8 [842]		MVP	Erick Strickland (MIL): +12.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	2.2 [789]		LVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): -10.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.05	0.08	21	69%	0.14	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Mike James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	9	79%	0.09	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Banks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Chris Mihm	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jumaine Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	17	52%	-0.01	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Mark Blount	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	12	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.01	6	87%	0.14	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	9	73%	0.08	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	13	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.03
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	9	57%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	3	80%	0.05	6	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	8	50%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	28.1	15.7	27.2	1.8	32.5	130.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.9%

MIL +13.4%

MIL +3.4%

BOS -1.5%

MIL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	13.1	14.7	15.7	100.0	106.7	100.5
season	14.4	15.3		99.5	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.7	14.4	13.2	11.4	13.1
MIL	15.1	13.3	15.0	15.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mihm	40	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-11	14	14.1	12.5	1.60	15.8	13.9	1.95
Mike James	62	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.23	3	-11	14	13.4	12.8	0.53	13.7	16.1	-2.46
Jumaine Jones	13	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-1	-6	13.3	13.1	0.19	18.0	14.2	3.84
Walter McCarty	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	0	-8	12.5	13.6	-1.17	14.2	15.0	-0.83
Jiri Welsch	74	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	13.4	12.5	0.92	14.9	14.0	0.89
Paul Pierce	92	92	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-7	6	13.1	13.3	-0.14	14.8	13.7	1.14
Marcus Banks	44	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	3	-14	12.5	13.6	-1.17	15.6	13.9	1.68
Ricky Davis	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	12.3	14.9	-2.64	14.8	14.5	0.33
Mark Blount	79	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	13.7	11.2	2.53	13.5	18.1	-4.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Santiago	29	29	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.16	20	-12	32	13.2	15.3	-2.08	14.3	12.7	1.62
Desmond Mason	65	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-3	14	14.2	15.5	-1.30	12.7	13.8	-1.10
Toni Kukoc	58	57	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	0	8	13.9	15.6	-1.68	13.0	13.3	-0.37
Damon Jones	60	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.16	8	0	8	14.0	15.5	-1.47	12.8	13.6	-0.79
Erick Strickland	39	40	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.16	6	2	4	14.7	14.6	0.07	13.1	13.2	-0.12
Tim Thomas	50	49	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	6	-4	14.9	14.4	0.48	14.2	12.2	1.94
T.J. Ford	53	51	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.12	0	8	-8	15.0	14.3	0.67	12.9	13.4	-0.56
Brian Skinner	52	51	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	8	-8	15.0	14.4	0.58	13.5	12.8	0.64
Michael Redd	62	61	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.44	-12	20	-32	15.9	12.8	3.09	12.6	13.9	-1.24
Joe Smith	52	52	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	11	-14	15.3	14.1	1.23	13.2	13.1	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%
GSW 106, SAC 120	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
TOR 95, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%