NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	4.4 [917]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +17.2%
Sacramento Kings	120		Comeback	1.8 [1128]		LVP	Doug Christie (SAC): -7.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.01	0.03	28	69%	0.21	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Oliver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	9	71%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Danny Fortson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	9	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	8	58%	0.04	4	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Larry Hughes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	57%	0.04	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.01	0.01	16	81%	0.19	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	12	77%	0.13	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.03	14	57%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	11	68%	0.11	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	7	31%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.5	29.5	17.4	21.6	2.6	26.3	122.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +26.2%

SAC +8.4%

SAC +15.7%

GSW -3.3%

SAC +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	13.7	14.0	15.6	101.9	115.4	102.3
season	14.7	14.2		100.7	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		99.6	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.5	15.1	14.3	12.2	13.7
SAC	13.2	14.3	14.5	13.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	47	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-14	14	14.0	13.5	0.41	13.4	14.4	-1.06
Gilbert Arenas	84	84	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-14	14	13.4	15.3	-1.94	13.4	16.1	-2.71
Adonal Foyle	43	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-9	4	14.7	13.1	1.57	14.5	13.6	0.90
Jason Richardson	88	87	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-9	4	13.7	13.9	-0.17	14.0	13.7	0.31
Larry Hughes	10	11	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-3	-8	15.3	13.6	1.74	15.4	13.8	1.57
Chris Mills	36	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-5	-4	14.4	13.4	1.05	14.2	13.8	0.44
Erick Dampier	61	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-5	-4	13.1	14.7	-1.57	13.6	14.5	-0.90
Troy Murphy	36	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-4	-6	13.0	14.1	-1.08	14.5	13.7	0.78
Dean Oliver	40	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-2	-10	13.3	14.0	-0.70	14.4	13.7	0.79
Antawn Jamison	75	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-5	-4	14.1	12.9	1.20	14.0	13.9	0.14

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Funderburke	62	63	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	3	8	13.7	14.3	-0.54	13.4	14.2	-0.77
Mike Bibby	57	58	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	4	6	14.0	13.9	0.16	14.6	12.7	1.90
Scot Pollard	79	79	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	11	-8	13.9	14.2	-0.26	13.5	14.4	-0.93
Gerald Wallace	44	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	2	10	13.6	14.2	-0.56	13.0	14.3	-1.29
Vlade Divac	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.10	14	0	14	14.2	13.6	0.63	14.5	12.6	1.89
Peja Stojakovic	71	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	9	-4	14.0	13.9	0.08	14.1	12.8	1.29
Hedo Turkoglu	24	25	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.03	6	8	-2	14.2	13.9	0.27	14.4	13.5	0.88
Doug Christie	63	63	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	6	2	14.3	13.4	0.98	13.8	13.6	0.16
Bobby Jackson	15	15	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	9	-4	14.1	13.9	0.12	14.4	13.6	0.78
Mateen Cleaves	28	27	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	12	-10	13.9	14.0	-0.05	12.2	14.3	-2.04
Chucky Brown	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	20	-26	12.5	14.2	-1.63	10.2	14.2	-4.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 93, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
POR 88, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
LAL 84, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%