NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	88		Excitement	8.3 [189]		MVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): +19.9%
New York Knicks	94		Comeback	1.2 [844]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -37.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.09	0.11	0.00	9	77%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Daniel Santiago	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.02
Michael Redd	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	21	43%	-0.06	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
T.J. Ford	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	6	57%	0.01	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	8	33%	-0.08	4	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.28,-0.28,-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	12	42%	-0.12	5	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	70%	0.18	3	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0	0.00	0.04	-0.04	0.00	20	61%	0.12	3	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.09,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.10	0.02	20	60%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	8	25%	-0.09	2	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	1	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.08
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	15	44%	-0.09	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	26.5	16.0	25.1	2.5	35.2	132.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +14.6%

MIL -15.6%

MIL -1.3%

NYK +41.2%

NYK +11.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	15.7	88.9	95.9	100.5
season	15.3	15.5		103.6	98.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		100.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.6	13.8	15.0	13.1	15.0
NYK	13.3	13.9	14.4	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	56	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.2	13.4	2.80	14.4	14.0	0.37
Desmond Mason	49	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-8	10	13.9	16.1	-2.22	14.3	14.2	0.12
T.J. Ford	56	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-3	0	16.5	13.1	3.41	14.3	14.2	0.11
Daniel Santiago	42	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.17	-1	-5	4	13.6	16.1	-2.48	14.8	13.9	0.90
Brian Skinner	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	16.1	13.6	2.48	13.9	14.8	-0.90
Damon Jones	43	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-3	0	13.1	16.5	-3.41	14.2	14.3	-0.11
Toni Kukoc	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-4	2	13.4	16.2	-2.80	14.0	14.4	-0.37
Michael Redd	86	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-3	0	15.1	14.5	0.53	14.6	11.7	2.83
Tim Thomas	63	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	5	-16	15.8	13.6	2.14	13.7	15.2	-1.46

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-5	16	14.0	14.9	-0.89	15.6	13.2	2.31
Stephon Marbury	79	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	0	6	14.2	14.3	-0.10	14.9	15.3	-0.38
Kurt Thomas	86	88	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	0	6	14.2	14.2	-0.02	15.3	12.3	3.07
Allan Houston	71	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	-3	12	14.4	13.9	0.43	15.5	13.7	1.83
Anfernee Hardaway	58	59	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	4	-2	13.5	15.3	-1.76	14.0	16.5	-2.52
Keith Van Horn	45	44	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-3	12	14.0	14.5	-0.48	15.7	14.5	1.19
Frank Williams	16	17	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	4	-2	13.5	14.4	-0.88	13.9	15.2	-1.35
Michael Doleac	7	8	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	4	-2	11.7	14.4	-2.71	13.5	15.1	-1.63
Moochie Norris	8	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.02	-3	9	-12	17.6	13.9	3.69	16.0	14.9	1.09
Shandon Anderson	32	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	13	-20	14.7	14.0	0.72	14.3	15.3	-1.03
Othella Harrington	13	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	13	-20	18.0	13.7	4.34	13.1	15.3	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.83,0.55,0.78,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, MIN 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.64,0.83,0.58,1	93.0%
MIL 72, ORL 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.57,0.84,1	92.4%
TOR 85, HOU 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.85,0.95,1	92.2%