NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	72		Excitement	7.8 [296]		MVP	Drew Gooden (MIL): +33.6%
Orlando Magic	78		Comeback	1.0 [1070]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -29.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.15,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.10	0.23	-0.01	12	62%	0.40	1	-0.07	5	80%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	9	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	4	100%	0.10	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.12	-0.02	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.12	2	0%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	11	32%	-0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3	-0.21	-0.13	-0.04	15	26%	-0.16	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	3	55%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	16	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	81%	0.10	5	-0.11	10	70%	-0.04
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.11	4	-0.13	13	62%	-0.10
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	12	46%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	14	29%	-0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	32.2	16.3	25.6	2.5	32.2	133.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.6%

MIL -12.9%

ORL +22.0%

ORL +15.9%

MIL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.3	15.5	76.6	83.0	105.7
season	16.2	15.2		100.1	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.4		101.1	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.8	16.2	15.5	14.0	15.4
ORL	14.2	15.1	18.0	14.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	36	35	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-13	20	15.0	15.6	-0.52	14.2	15.9	-1.69
Corey Maggette	31	32	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-10	14	14.3	15.9	-1.58	14.6	15.7	-1.10
Michael Redd	9	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-7	8	18.1	15.1	3.05	11.8	15.7	-3.88
Earl Boykins	15	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-10	14	15.1	15.4	-0.26	15.9	15.2	0.75
Larry Sanders	14	15	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	14.1	15.6	-1.42	13.9	15.6	-1.69
Chris Douglas-Roberts	7	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-4	2	14.3	15.4	-1.15	14.0	15.4	-1.41
Luc Mbah a Moute	55	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-2	-2	16.3	14.0	2.35	15.8	14.6	1.20
Drew Gooden	49	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-12	18	14.8	15.9	-1.12	16.0	14.5	1.52
John Salmons	63	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	3	-12	15.1	15.8	-0.68	15.8	14.2	1.58
Brandon Jennings	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	3	-12	15.2	15.9	-0.73	15.6	14.3	1.27
Andrew Bogut	54	53	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.15	-16	10	-26	16.0	14.4	1.61	15.0	15.6	-0.57
Carlos Delfino	65	66	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.28	-12	6	-18	15.5	15.0	0.46	15.4	14.9	0.51

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	69	71	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-9	24	15.2	15.4	-0.21	15.7	14.3	1.44
Jason Richardson	60	61	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	15.8	14.3	1.56	15.6	14.9	0.63
Brandon Bass	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-4	14	15.2	15.5	-0.24	15.7	14.5	1.12
Dwight Howard	75	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-1	8	15.8	13.3	2.54	15.0	16.7	-1.70
Hedo Turkoglu	65	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	2	2	16.2	13.2	2.96	15.2	15.7	-0.51
Quentin Richardson	34	34	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	5	-4	13.3	16.4	-3.08	15.7	15.1	0.56
Gilbert Arenas	34	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	10	-14	14.3	15.8	-1.56	14.9	15.6	-0.63
Ryan Anderson	42	41	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	11	-16	14.5	15.9	-1.38	15.8	15.0	0.85
Chris Duhon	23	22	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	14	-22	15.7	15.2	0.54	13.4	15.9	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.57,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 88, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.83,0.55,0.78,0.72,1	92.4%
SEA 74, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.84,1	91.3%
IND 95, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.55,0.85,1	91.3%