inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Washington Wizards 92 Excitement3.6 [1084] MVPLee Nailon (ORL): +6.4%
Orlando Magic 103 Comeback1.0 [1258] LVPGilbert Arenas (WAS): -11.9%


Washington Wizards
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Larry Hughes0.030,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.050.000.031860%0.072-0.04786%0.01
Jared Jeffries0.020,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.000.01562%0.0200.00367%-0.00
Juan Dixon-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.000.000.01464%0.022-0.03333%-0.01
Etan Thomas-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.030.00-0.0120%-0.0200.0000%0.00
Christian Laettner-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.010.000.01841%-0.0300.001100%0.00
Kwame Brown-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.04-0.00-0.021053%-0.011-0.021258%-0.01
Brevin Knight-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.01-0.000.02460%-0.021-0.0120%-0.03
Brendan Haywood-0.040,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.020.000.02455%-0.021-0.02367%-0.00
Steve Blake-0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.050.00-0.0120%-0.031-0.0200%0.00
Jarvis Hayes-0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.040.000.00520%-0.0500.0000%0.00
Gilbert Arenas-0.120,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12-0.19-0.01-0.081734%-0.055-0.07475%0.00

Orlando Magic
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Lee Nailon0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.090.000.02685%0.0600.001100%0.01
Shammond Williams0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.020.00-0.01383%0.051-0.0100%0.00
Drew Gooden0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.02-0.030.00-0.04940%0.0200.002100%0.01
Andrew DeClercq0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.010.00-0.00450%0.0200.0000%0.00
Rod Strickland0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.010.00-0.01350%0.011-0.0100%0.00
Tracy McGrady0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.030.01-0.022953%0.075-0.078100%0.01
Tyronn Lue0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.070.00-0.06737%0.012-0.0220%-0.00
Keith Bogans0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.070.00-0.061246%0.023-0.04425%-0.01
Steven Hunter0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.020.00-0.0010%-0.0100.0000%0.00
Gordan Giricek0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.000.000.01567%0.022-0.032100%0.00
Juwan Howard0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.07-0.00-0.02942%-0.031-0.01667%-0.01
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game22.81.833.015.828.21.832.4135.8
league avg47.82.427.914.324.82.129.8150.4
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
ORL +30.1%
WAS -1.2%
ORL +14.6%
ORL +0.6%
ORL +5.9%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsWASORLNBAWASORLNBA
this game14.517.715.7101.1117.0100.5
season15.215.796.4100.9
opponent15.415.3108.2102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
WAS18.815.313.311.514.5
ORL16.418.218.218.017.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Steve Blake1313-0.04-0.460.41-0.040-111116.114.21.8513.618.5-4.84
Christian Laettner3230-0.07-0.430.35-0.070-111115.314.11.2117.717.8-0.06
Juan Dixon1819-0.11-0.390.280.01-4-7313.914.6-0.6918.217.60.60
Brevin Knight2927-0.14-0.360.22-0.140-111111.715.8-4.1218.417.40.96
Brendan Haywood3332-0.14-0.360.22-0.11-1-10915.713.81.9316.818.2-1.41
Jarvis Hayes4544-0.25-0.250.01-0.10-5-6114.414.6-0.1416.419.1-2.66
Etan Thomas2019-0.26-0.24-0.020.12-132-1517.513.63.9215.118.5-3.43
Jared Jeffries4847-0.27-0.23-0.04-0.09-6-5-114.214.8-0.6119.615.64.03
Kwame Brown6664-0.37-0.13-0.25-0.20-6-5-114.215.3-1.1417.917.30.56
Gilbert Arenas7370-0.39-0.11-0.28-0.13-9-2-714.414.9-0.4917.917.30.58
Larry Hughes7875-0.45-0.05-0.41-0.13-110-1114.315.4-1.0418.513.25.38

Orlando Magic
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Keith Bogans62640.460.040.410.0713-21518.316.51.8114.614.20.44
Andrew DeClercq48520.450.050.400.0115-41918.117.30.7116.312.14.14
Tracy McGrady76790.360.140.230.2547-318.016.21.8214.216.2-2.02
Juwan Howard59600.350.150.190.1765117.019.3-2.2914.913.61.29
Rod Strickland22210.280.220.05-0.0812-11314.518.8-4.2617.813.54.25
Tyronn Lue54580.230.27-0.040.1729-719.614.94.7013.915.5-1.65
Gordan Giricek38400.220.28-0.06-0.0183516.418.8-2.4114.514.50.05
Drew Gooden27280.150.35-0.200.0638-519.017.21.8714.414.5-0.10
Lee Nailon27280.110.39-0.270.11011-1118.417.40.9611.515.8-4.27
Shammond Williams1514-0.000.50-0.510.05-213-1515.218.3-3.0611.615.0-3.45
Steven Hunter1211-0.100.60-0.700.08-617-2316.617.9-1.3413.114.7-1.60


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
NOH 103, SAC 1120.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,196.5%
ATL 90, SAS 1050.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,196.5%
MIN 75, IND 980.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,196.4%