NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	70		Excitement	6.7 [462]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +19.3%
San Antonio Spurs	73		Comeback	1.5 [829]		LVP	Jalen Rose (TOR): -31.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19	0.14	0.05	-0.00	13	73%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.21	-0.15	-0.08	-0.02	12	23%	-0.18	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Vince Carter	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27	-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	20	36%	-0.19	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Jalen Rose	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.14	-0.17	0.00	9	54%	-0.06	7	-0.25	8	100%	0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	7	57%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	11	57%	0.06	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	4	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	7	24%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	22	52%	-0.04	3	-0.09	14	43%	-0.11
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	6	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	9	22%	-0.12	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.3	25.6	17.4	26.8	2.0	31.2	132.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +11.0%

TOR -0.5%

SAS +14.1%

SAS +16.7%

SAS +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAS	NBA	TOR	SAS	NBA
this game	17.6	16.7	15.7	84.3	85.9	100.5
season	16.8	15.9		94.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.7		92.7	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.3	19.2	16.6	17.1	17.6
SAS	14.1	17.6	17.7	18.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	55	57	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.27	10	-13	23	17.8	17.0	0.80	17.8	14.5	3.38
Michael Curry	8	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	3	-9	21.9	17.1	4.77	15.1	16.9	-1.73
Milt Palacio	21	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	5	-13	18.2	17.4	0.84	13.7	17.8	-4.10
Vince Carter	68	70	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-7	11	17.0	19.9	-2.89	16.8	16.2	0.64
Donyell Marshall	73	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-6	9	17.1	21.3	-4.25	16.5	18.6	-2.09
Jalen Rose	67	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-4	5	17.0	19.9	-2.86	16.5	17.6	-1.06
Lonny Baxter	30	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	7	-17	18.8	16.8	1.98	15.5	17.5	-2.02
Chris Bosh	63	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.37	1	-4	5	17.6	17.6	-0.04	17.6	14.4	3.22
Morris Peterson	30	28	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	7	-17	17.9	17.4	0.52	17.5	16.4	1.15

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	41	40	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-7	17	16.0	17.4	-1.31	18.1	17.1	0.98
Tim Duncan	76	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.46	5	-2	7	16.6	18.0	-1.42	17.5	17.7	-0.15
Jason Hart	20	19	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.14	10	-7	17	13.9	17.6	-3.70	19.2	17.1	2.06
Manu Ginobili	46	47	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.10	11	-8	19	15.7	17.9	-2.16	17.8	17.3	0.46
Bruce Bowen	70	67	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	5	-7	17.6	12.7	4.85	17.6	17.4	0.24
Malik Rose	19	18	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	1	1	16.9	16.7	0.21	17.0	17.7	-0.72
Rasho Nesterovic	52	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	3	-3	17.5	15.5	2.08	17.6	17.5	0.05
Robert Horry	23	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	4	-5	15.3	17.3	-2.01	18.0	17.4	0.65
Tony Parker	65	64	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.27	-7	10	-17	17.6	13.9	3.70	17.1	19.2	-2.06
Hedo Turkoglu	13	12	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.01	-13	16	-29	17.8	16.5	1.23	14.8	18.0	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.71,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.95,1	92.4%
SAC 101, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.81,0.96,0.9,0.95,1	92.1%
BOS 96, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	91.9%