NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	90		Excitement	7.9 [244]		MVP	Karl Malone (LAL): +25.4%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	6.8 [83]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -22.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.17	0.01	12	67%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	13	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.08
Gary Payton	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Horace Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.2,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.02	-0.01	12	47%	0.00	5	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	0.02	-0.01	20	43%	-0.01	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.07

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	14	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	60%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.00	8	61%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.12
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	20	59%	0.01	3	-0.09	11	73%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	8	25%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	11	50%	0.02	6	-0.24	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	525.2	2.4	32.8	1.0	27.0	2.4	39.7	630.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +20.4%

LAL +12.2%

SAS -4.1%

LAL +32.8%

SAS -11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	15.7	94.7	90.5	100.5
season	15.4	15.9		102.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.3	14.8	15.2	13.4	14.7
SAS	14.7	15.2	14.8	17.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	75	75	1.08	-0.58	1.66	0.34	25	-21	46	14.0	17.4	-3.44	16.2	13.5	2.64
Gary Payton	68	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-11	26	14.1	16.2	-2.15	15.8	15.2	0.66
Shaquille O'Neal	77	77	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-7	18	14.3	16.3	-1.97	15.9	14.5	1.40
Devean George	72	74	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-8	20	14.3	16.0	-1.74	15.6	15.6	0.02
Kobe Bryant	91	92	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-4	12	14.6	17.0	-2.42	15.7	13.0	2.72
Bryon Russell	23	21	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	12	-20	16.0	14.3	1.74	15.6	15.6	-0.02
Horace Grant	18	18	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.03	-7	11	-18	16.3	14.3	1.97	14.5	15.9	-1.40
Derek Fisher	31	29	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.15	-15	19	-34	16.3	13.9	2.43	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Slava Medvedenko	20	20	-0.58	1.08	-1.66	0.04	-21	25	-46	17.4	14.0	3.44	13.5	16.2	-2.64

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	29	30	0.39	-0.89	1.28	-0.05	15	-19	34	14.4	16.2	-1.75	16.5	13.9	2.61
Jason Hart	20	21	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.06	12	-16	28	13.4	16.2	-2.83	16.4	14.2	2.18
Hedo Turkoglu	47	47	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-9	14	15.7	15.6	0.14	14.9	14.5	0.41
Robert Horry	7	6	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-4	4	12.4	15.9	-3.46	20.3	14.3	6.03
Manu Ginobili	73	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-4	4	14.9	17.9	-2.96	14.8	14.1	0.68
Tim Duncan	88	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	16.1	10.0	6.08	14.4	18.6	-4.20
Bruce Bowen	71	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	9	-22	16.1	14.3	1.74	14.3	15.7	-1.44
Tony Parker	75	74	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.32	-16	12	-28	16.2	13.4	2.83	14.2	16.4	-2.18
Rasho Nesterovic	65	65	-0.89	0.39	-1.29	-0.34	-19	15	-34	16.2	14.5	1.65	13.9	16.5	-2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.62,0.53,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.15,0.1,0	92.0%
ATL 82, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.36,0.24,0.15,0	91.9%
IND 99, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.85,0.76,0.8,0.7,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.16,0.04,0	91.5%