NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	78		Excitement	3.9 [1028]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +6.2%
San Antonio Spurs	87		Comeback	1.9 [816]		LVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): -11.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.03	5	62%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.00
Raul Lopez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.02	3	-0.04	2	100%	-0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	10	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raja Bell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.06	5	50%	0.01	6	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	0.02	11	45%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	57%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	8	64%	0.04	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.02	-0.06	10	35%	-0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	-0.08	5	50%	0.01	5	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	14	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	7	29%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	14	53%	0.05	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	27.5	17.0	24.2	2.3	41.3	138.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.2%

SAS +3.4%

SAS +3.7%

SAS +9.5%

SAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	14.7	15.7	85.7	94.6	100.5
season	17.2	15.9		99.4	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.2		92.7	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.0	19.1	17.3	13.1	16.8
SAS	15.3	14.5	16.2	13.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	45	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-7	5	18.6	15.1	3.45	16.0	13.4	2.68
Jarron Collins	47	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-15	21	15.4	18.3	-2.96	14.0	15.4	-1.41
Carlos Arroyo	39	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.07	-3	-6	3	18.5	15.5	3.02	16.7	13.2	3.55
Sasha Pavlovic	36	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.26	2	-11	13	13.2	19.2	-6.03	12.5	16.1	-3.57
Matt Harpring	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	-2	-5	19.1	14.1	5.00	15.6	13.6	2.01
Greg Ostertag	48	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-2	-5	18.6	14.8	3.79	16.6	12.7	3.93
Raul Lopez	52	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-3	-3	15.5	18.5	-3.02	13.2	16.7	-3.55
Raja Bell	46	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-5	1	15.1	18.6	-3.45	13.1	16.3	-3.20
Andrei Kirilenko	47	47	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.10	-17	8	-25	18.5	15.0	3.42	15.7	13.6	2.10

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	73	71	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.02	19	-10	29	14.2	16.5	-2.27	17.7	13.7	3.99
Tim Duncan	58	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-7	23	15.7	12.9	2.75	18.9	13.2	5.70
Manu Ginobili	74	76	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	5	-1	14.8	14.3	0.42	16.8	16.9	-0.14
Tony Parker	58	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	6	-3	15.2	13.8	1.40	16.4	17.6	-1.19
Rasho Nesterovic	54	55	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	9	-9	15.5	13.4	2.09	17.9	15.1	2.77
Malik Rose	45	43	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	8	-7	12.9	16.4	-3.45	15.0	18.5	-3.48
Robert Horry	25	24	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	10	-11	14.7	14.7	0.06	13.6	18.0	-4.33
Jason Hart	34	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.05	6	3	3	13.8	15.2	-1.40	17.6	16.4	1.19
Hedo Turkoglu	39	37	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	12	-15	14.7	14.7	0.03	14.5	18.4	-3.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 92, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
SAC 91, TOR 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 94, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%