NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Excitement	4.4 [936]		MVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): +5.2%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	5.6 [64]		LVP	Troy Hudson (MIN): -18.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	16	49%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Marc Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	9	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	10	73%	0.08	5	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05
Gary Trent	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	12	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	5	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Troy Hudson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	12	25%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	86%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.15	0.00	0.14	10	82%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	73%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ken Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.02	0.09	22	69%	0.09	4	-0.10	7	57%	-0.04
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	62%	0.04	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.6	29.3	16.4	25.5	2.4	30.6	130.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.1%

MIA +6.0%

MIA +6.6%

MIN -9.9%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	15.5	92.3	119.4	101.6
season	14.9	16.3		104.0	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.8		100.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.8	18.0	16.1	18.0	16.4
MIA	15.6	14.8	17.4	12.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Jackson	27	29	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.19	-5	-22	17	17.6	15.9	1.70	13.8	15.4	-1.59
Loren Woods	12	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-25	23	16.7	16.4	0.31	13.0	15.3	-2.27
Gary Trent	20	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	-23	19	18.6	15.8	2.89	13.4	15.4	-1.98
Troy Hudson	47	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.22	-14	-13	-1	16.5	16.2	0.28	14.9	15.0	-0.06
Anthony Peeler	60	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	-16	5	15.4	18.4	-2.97	15.1	14.6	0.55
Joe Smith	30	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-21	15	16.3	16.4	-0.14	16.3	14.2	2.10
Kendall Gill	55	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	-9	-9	16.7	15.9	0.75	14.7	15.3	-0.57
Rasho Nesterovic	38	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.17	-16	-11	-5	16.2	16.6	-0.41	14.6	15.1	-0.46
Mike Wilks	44	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-14	1	16.2	16.5	-0.28	15.0	14.9	0.06
Kevin Garnett	68	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.07	-18	-9	-9	15.7	18.5	-2.85	15.6	13.2	2.46
Wally Szczerbiak	54	55	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.32	-28	1	-29	16.9	15.7	1.12	15.2	14.5	0.67

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	55	55	0.70	-0.20	0.91	-0.06	26	1	25	15.6	13.9	1.74	17.3	15.1	2.22
Anthony Carter	69	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.31	32	-5	37	14.8	15.2	-0.44	16.2	17.0	-0.75
Caron Butler	76	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.19	23	4	19	15.0	14.7	0.27	15.9	18.7	-2.72
Brian Grant	57	56	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.51	29	-2	31	14.7	15.3	-0.67	17.5	14.6	2.87
Malik Allen	54	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.34	21	6	15	15.0	14.8	0.14	16.5	16.2	0.36
Vladimir Stepania	63	62	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	27	-27	15.6	13.5	2.10	15.5	18.4	-2.91
LaPhonso Ellis	4	4	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	22	-17	10.0	15.1	-5.15	13.2	16.5	-3.29
Ken Johnson	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	13.5	15.1	-1.56	16.4	16.4	0.04
Eddie House	37	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.35	10	17	-7	13.6	15.8	-2.16	17.2	15.9	1.31
Travis Best	16	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	31	-35	16.1	14.7	1.45	17.2	16.2	0.96
Rasual Butler	26	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	33	-39	14.7	15.0	-0.32	14.6	17.0	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.77,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.77,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	95.1%
OKC 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	94.7%
SAC 93, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%