NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	1.9 [1262]		MVP	Brad Miller (IND): +4.2%
Indiana Pacers	140		Comeback	1.1 [1167]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -12.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	52%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	60%	0.01	1	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	13	58%	0.04	5	-0.04	5	40%	-0.01
Lonny Baxter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.11	6	19%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jay Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	14	43%	-0.02	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	0.05	14	40%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	11	76%	0.04	2	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	67%	0.04	0	0.00	13	77%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	3	117%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	64%	0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	13	66%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	9	78%	0.01	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	9	67%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	9	71%	0.05	4	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	3	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	30.1	15.5	24.6	1.8	28.4	126.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +27.4%

IND +1.7%

IND +16.1%

IND +4.9%

CHI -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	14.0	14.1	15.5	86.4	137.3	101.6
season	15.0	15.4		98.3	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		99.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.2	14.0	13.6	14.4	14.0
IND	14.0	14.8	13.1	14.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	43	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.58	-21	-30	9	13.7	14.3	-0.55	13.3	14.6	-1.31
Roger Mason Jr.	31	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.49	-22	-29	7	15.0	13.6	1.42	14.5	13.9	0.64
Trenton Hassell	45	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.46	-21	-30	9	14.0	14.1	-0.07	14.0	14.1	-0.07
Eddie Robinson	47	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.63	-29	-22	-7	15.1	13.2	1.92	13.2	14.8	-1.61
Jay Williams	50	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.53	-26	-25	-1	13.7	14.4	-0.74	14.1	14.0	0.16
Jamal Crawford	53	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.46	-25	-26	1	14.4	13.7	0.74	14.0	14.1	-0.16
Tyson Chandler	49	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.44	-26	-25	-1	13.6	14.5	-0.93	15.1	13.2	1.94
Jalen Rose	72	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.51	-29	-22	-7	13.6	15.0	-1.42	13.9	14.5	-0.64
Donyell Marshall	50	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.34	-24	-27	3	14.0	14.1	-0.11	13.3	14.8	-1.57
Eddy Curry	75	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.54	-32	-19	-13	13.9	14.3	-0.34	15.0	11.8	3.17

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	52	53	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.41	29	22	7	13.8	14.3	-0.55	14.3	13.8	0.54
Ron Mercer	48	46	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.63	33	18	15	14.0	14.1	-0.07	14.4	13.7	0.68
Brad Miller	56	57	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.40	24	27	-3	13.6	14.6	-1.04	14.2	13.8	0.35
Tim Hardaway	49	48	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.55	29	22	7	12.0	15.9	-3.92	14.2	13.9	0.24
Metta World Peace	56	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.45	25	26	-1	13.3	15.0	-1.71	14.1	13.9	0.23
Erick Strickland	46	48	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.36	19	32	-13	15.3	13.0	2.31	13.8	14.3	-0.50
Jonathan Bender	46	46	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.60	27	24	3	14.6	13.6	1.04	13.8	14.2	-0.35
Jeff Foster	40	41	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.64	28	23	5	14.0	14.1	-0.06	13.1	14.6	-1.52
Jermaine O'Neal	52	53	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.24	13	38	-25	14.7	13.4	1.37	14.3	13.7	0.58
Reggie Miller	28	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.21	10	41	-31	15.7	13.4	2.28	13.7	14.2	-0.44
Austin Croshere	37	37	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.48	18	33	-15	14.6	13.7	0.88	14.1	14.0	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, SEA 127	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
ATL 95, POR 131	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
POR 82, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%