NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	2.0 [1242]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +11.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	127		Comeback	1.1 [1120]		LVP	Kevin Willis (DEN): -8.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	16	55%	0.02	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.02
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	5	82%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
George McCloud	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	4	20%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	9	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	7	24%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	62%	-0.00	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	11	27%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.19	0.00	0.08	20	73%	0.12	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	0.02	0.08	8	94%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	14	67%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.02	14	66%	0.05	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	76%	0.03	2	-0.01	9	67%	-0.01
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	68%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Olumide Oyedeji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	6	21%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	50.6	1.6	27.8	15.8	27.1	1.8	28.4	153.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +44.6%

DEN -0.0%

SEA +0.9%

SEA +4.2%

SEA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	16.7	14.6	15.5	106.5	138.0	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		101.4	103.8
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.5	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.3	16.7	17.8	14.2	16.7
SEA	13.5	14.0	16.5	14.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	25	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-27	25	14.2	17.6	-3.37	14.6	14.6	-0.07
Mark Strickland	35	34	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-30	31	14.6	18.0	-3.34	15.3	14.2	1.13
Ryan Bowen	31	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-28	27	14.0	18.1	-4.07	14.5	14.7	-0.24
Voshon Lenard	55	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.11	-11	-18	7	17.1	16.0	1.12	15.0	14.1	0.95
Nick Van Exel	57	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.15	-13	-16	3	17.3	15.7	1.68	14.9	14.1	0.86
Antonio McDyess	56	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.24	-17	-12	-5	17.7	15.1	2.69	14.8	14.3	0.45
Anthony Goldwire	35	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.20	-16	-13	-3	15.7	17.3	-1.68	14.1	14.9	-0.86
George McCloud	42	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.19	-18	-11	-7	16.4	17.0	-0.58	14.3	14.8	-0.51
Kevin Willis	29	28	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.26	-21	-8	-13	17.4	16.3	1.10	14.9	14.5	0.41
James Posey	33	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.30	-23	-6	-17	20.2	14.7	5.44	14.4	14.7	-0.36
Raef LaFrentz	62	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.32	-24	-5	-19	16.9	16.4	0.49	14.0	16.0	-1.95

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	68	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.39	28	1	27	14.8	14.0	0.82	17.4	14.8	2.52
Ruben Patterson	46	46	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.17	18	11	7	14.2	15.1	-0.91	16.2	17.2	-1.00
Patrick Ewing	46	48	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.38	24	5	19	14.1	15.1	-1.04	19.0	14.2	4.73
Emanual Davis	55	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.15	16	13	3	14.0	15.5	-1.56	15.2	18.9	-3.72
Vin Baker	70	71	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.27	20	9	11	14.4	15.3	-0.93	17.1	15.5	1.58
Shammond Williams	49	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.19	17	12	5	14.3	15.0	-0.73	15.4	18.1	-2.63
Rashard Lewis	62	63	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.17	15	14	1	14.7	14.3	0.41	17.7	14.6	3.03
Brent Barry	31	32	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.25	14	15	-1	14.8	14.5	0.35	19.9	15.0	4.97
Olumide Oyedeji	15	13	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	33	-37	17.6	14.0	3.57	10.5	17.7	-7.17
Jelani McCoy	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	30	-31	15.6	14.5	1.04	9.5	17.2	-7.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 99, ATL 131	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
CHI 89, IND 140	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
POR 86, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%