NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	9.8 [81]		MVP	Eduardo Najera (DAL): +40.6%
Golden State Warriors	114		Comeback	3.0 [486]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -11.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.41	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.41	0.09	0.32	0.01	8	76%	0.41	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.07,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.13	0.00	9	67%	0.31	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.07,0.12	-0.02	0.12	-0.02	21	48%	0.25	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Shawn Bradley	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	11	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	12	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	16	47%	-0.02	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	4	91%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	8	72%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	16	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Jiri Welsch	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	24	54%	0.22	5	-0.27	6	67%	-0.09
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	56%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	13	43%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	586.4	2.4	31.2	16.4	-694.7	2.0	30.5	-25.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +73.2%

GSW -38.4%

DAL +9.0%

DAL +5.7%

DAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.8	14.1	15.5	124.7	121.3	101.6
season	15.1	14.6		108.6	105.3
opponent	15.1	15.3		106.8	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.1	14.8	16.4	18.9	16.8
GSW	14.2	15.2	13.0	13.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	56	57	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.53	12	-10	22	17.4	15.7	1.70	14.3	13.8	0.51
Steve Nash	70	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-5	12	16.7	16.9	-0.16	14.9	11.4	3.48
Michael Finley	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	1	0	16.8	16.5	0.28	14.1	13.9	0.21
Raef LaFrentz	59	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	2	-2	17.0	16.3	0.68	14.7	12.8	1.92
Nick Van Exel	51	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.40	-6	8	-14	17.3	16.1	1.16	13.6	14.6	-1.03
Shawn Bradley	62	64	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	0	2	17.1	16.0	1.13	12.9	16.5	-3.58
Raja Bell	11	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	2	-2	12.2	17.4	-5.18	14.2	14.0	0.21
Dirk Nowitzki	36	37	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	1	0	16.1	17.2	-1.05	14.6	13.7	0.96
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	10	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	17.4	16.7	0.73	11.1	14.5	-3.37
Walt Williams	10	8	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	5	-8	14.7	17.0	-2.30	16.9	13.8	3.07
Adrian Griffin	26	24	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	5	-8	16.1	17.0	-0.88	12.7	14.5	-1.82

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	40	41	0.48	-0.98	1.46	0.16	11	-13	24	14.2	13.9	0.32	16.0	17.3	-1.30
Earl Boykins	29	30	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-12	22	15.6	13.4	2.25	16.2	17.0	-0.87
Jiri Welsch	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-2	2	0.0	14.1	-14.06	12.0	16.8	-4.80
Adonal Foyle	56	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-9	16	14.1	14.1	0.02	16.9	16.5	0.46
Bob Sura	46	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-5	8	14.3	13.8	0.56	16.7	16.8	-0.19
Erick Dampier	37	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	6	-14	14.2	14.0	0.21	16.9	16.6	0.27
Troy Murphy	54	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	2	-6	13.8	14.4	-0.63	17.0	16.5	0.47
Gilbert Arenas	84	82	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.44	-5	3	-8	13.8	16.3	-2.50	17.1	14.1	3.02
Jason Richardson	61	59	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.39	-10	8	-18	14.0	14.2	-0.14	16.2	17.7	-1.50
Antawn Jamison	63	63	-1.00	0.50	-1.50	-0.59	-14	12	-26	13.6	15.1	-1.49	17.3	15.7	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.67,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.62,0.52,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.45,0.46,0.33,0.53,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 80, SAS 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	91.1%
MEM 102, TOR 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.52,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.57,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.53,0.37,0.29,0.58,0	90.2%
NYK 107, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.37,0.17,0.42,0	90.2%