NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	9.5 [93]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +89.1%
Detroit Pistons	107		Comeback	15.6 [130]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -30.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	19	68%	0.36	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.06
Bob Sura	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.01	5	92%	0.25	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	7	81%	0.18	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.10
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	11	38%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Mills	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.89	0.89	0.17	0.72	-0.00	15	79%	0.93	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	15	63%	0.16	2	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	5	55%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Hubert Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pepe Sanchez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.07	0.01	10	54%	-0.08	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	12	34%	-0.20	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.15
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.17	-0.18	-0.05	18	32%	-0.16	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.0	28.6	15.8	27.4	2.7	37.6	136.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +27.6%

GSW -0.3%

DET +6.0%

DET +8.4%

DET +8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.5	116.7	120.2	101.6
season	14.6	16.8		105.3	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.1		97.8	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.1	16.4	15.8	15.9	15.8
DET	16.2	19.6	15.5	14.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	67	66	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.20	-2	0	-2	15.9	15.5	0.40	15.6	18.7	-3.03
Mike Dunleavy	47	46	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-6	10	16.0	15.6	0.38	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	14	14	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-2	2	15.5	15.8	-0.33	14.0	16.9	-2.85
Erick Dampier	51	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	2	-6	16.5	14.8	1.78	17.8	14.6	3.23
Jason Richardson	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	4	-10	14.6	16.8	-2.17	16.3	16.5	-0.24
Bob Sura	48	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-6	10	16.8	14.6	2.17	16.8	16.0	0.76
Chris Mills	30	29	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.46	3	-5	8	16.0	15.7	0.33	16.8	16.2	0.58
Gilbert Arenas	76	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	3	-8	15.2	18.9	-3.65	15.5	21.0	-5.45
Troy Murphy	60	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.44	-4	2	-6	15.1	17.2	-2.08	16.5	16.2	0.23
Earl Boykins	15	15	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.77	0	-2	2	17.6	15.4	2.19	19.9	15.7	4.24

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	61	61	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.63	6	-4	10	15.5	18.4	-2.90	15.8	15.8	-0.07
Richard Hamilton	65	68	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.49	9	-7	16	15.7	18.4	-2.76	16.1	14.8	1.27
Corliss Williamson	54	53	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.41	9	-7	16	15.8	17.3	-1.45	15.7	15.8	-0.10
Chauncey Billups	83	83	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	15.7	25.5	-9.75	15.7	17.3	-1.64
Jon Barry	41	42	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.42	-5	7	-12	16.9	16.0	0.92	15.3	16.2	-0.92
Pepe Sanchez	6	7	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	1	0	25.5	15.7	9.75	17.3	15.7	1.64
Michael Curry	29	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	6	-10	17.4	15.9	1.45	16.3	15.5	0.73
Ben Wallace	85	85	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.24	2	0	2	16.2	20.5	-4.29	16.0	12.2	3.79
Mehmet Okur	21	21	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.02	-9	11	-20	21.3	14.9	6.39	14.4	16.2	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.32,0.36,0.06,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.22,0.15,0.42,1	91.1%
IND 93, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.58,1	90.2%
GSW 91, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.09,1	90.0%