NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	8.3 [208]		MVP	J.R. Bremer (BOS): +40.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	110		Comeback	1.7 [550]		LVP	Tony Battie (BOS): -11.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Bremer	0.40	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.4	0.20	0.23	0.03	11	96%	0.43	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Paul Pierce	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.10	0.02	19	70%	0.31	4	-0.13	6	67%	-0.03
Tony Delk	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	5	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Grant Long	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	-0.03	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.05
Kedrick Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.09	0.03	-0.03	24	35%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	5	56%	-0.07	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.02	13	69%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.16	-0.02	0.07	13	81%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Batiste	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	14	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	20	55%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	16	37%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.7	25.1	15.8	25.2	2.5	34.5	131.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +54.4%

BOS +3.7%

MEM -2.0%

MEM -10.4%

BOS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MEM	NBA	BOS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	15.5	120.7	120.9	101.6
season	15.6	15.3		99.3	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.1	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.2	16.9	16.6	15.9	15.8
MEM	13.5	15.1	17.7	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	75	74	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.41	12	-11	23	14.9	19.8	-4.92	16.1	13.9	2.11
Tony Battie	64	64	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-8	17	14.8	18.1	-3.35	16.0	14.7	1.31
Antoine Walker	87	85	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.41	4	-3	7	16.0	12.8	3.19	16.0	11.2	4.81
J.R. Bremer	69	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	1	-1	15.7	16.1	-0.42	15.9	15.0	0.88
Eric Williams	65	64	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.32	5	-4	9	15.1	17.5	-2.41	14.9	17.5	-2.64
Kedrick Brown	14	15	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	1	-1	16.3	15.7	0.55	19.4	14.9	4.48
Walter McCarty	26	26	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	3	-5	17.3	15.2	2.03	15.9	15.6	0.37
Tony Delk	29	29	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	3	-5	17.0	15.3	1.78	14.8	16.1	-1.32
Grant Long	11	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.17	-10	11	-21	18.4	15.5	2.89	10.5	16.4	-5.82
Mark Blount	20	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.15	-11	12	-23	19.0	14.9	4.07	14.3	16.0	-1.76

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	38	38	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.09	8	-9	17	14.5	16.5	-1.99	16.5	15.3	1.21
Earl Watson	38	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	0	-1	15.7	15.6	0.13	16.4	15.4	0.99
Brevin Knight	34	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	2	-5	16.3	15.3	0.97	16.2	15.6	0.67
Jason Williams	57	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-3	5	15.3	16.3	-0.97	15.6	16.2	-0.67
Wesley Person	71	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-1	1	15.4	16.6	-1.27	15.7	16.4	-0.75
Shane Battier	73	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.45	-1	0	-1	15.9	14.7	1.17	15.7	16.4	-0.73
Mike Batiste	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.43	-4	3	-7	16.2	12.7	3.50	15.9	15.5	0.38
Pau Gasol	68	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.42	-6	5	-11	15.7	15.7	0.01	15.4	17.3	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.21,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, SAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.06,0,0	92.4%
SAC 101, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.05,0	91.7%
UTA 90, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.09,0.13,0	91.7%