NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	4.9 [819]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +5.8%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	2.0 [811]		LVP	Jay Williams (CHI): -25.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	14	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.06
Fred Hoiberg	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	23	57%	0.05	5	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	7	37%	-0.14	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.05
Jay Williams	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.20	-0.06	-0.02	10	12%	-0.19	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	14	62%	0.06	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	18	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	10	80%	0.03
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.01	7	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	10	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	21	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.7	30.6	13.8	27.4	2.5	34.5	138.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +14.6%

MIA +18.2%

MIA +4.1%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.8	15.5	102.3	111.1	101.6
season	15.0	16.3		98.3	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.1		100.7	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.1	16.0	15.0	13.4	15.6
MIA	17.0	16.0	19.2	15.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lonny Baxter	21	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-12	14	15.1	15.7	-0.61	14.7	17.5	-2.79
Roger Mason Jr.	1	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-9	8	19.0	15.5	3.48	14.0	16.8	-2.82
Trenton Hassell	31	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-8	6	16.2	15.2	1.03	17.0	16.7	0.38
Jamal Crawford	36	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-5	0	14.1	16.6	-2.45	15.8	17.5	-1.68
Eddy Curry	58	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-9	8	14.8	16.9	-2.09	16.0	18.2	-2.19
Jay Williams	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-5	0	16.6	14.1	2.45	17.5	15.8	1.68
Fred Hoiberg	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-6	2	14.6	17.8	-3.26	16.6	17.3	-0.72
Donyell Marshall	31	32	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.06	-15	5	-20	16.9	14.8	2.08	17.8	16.2	1.64
Tyson Chandler	66	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	15.7	15.1	0.56	17.6	14.3	3.34
Jalen Rose	83	85	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	3	-16	16.0	8.2	7.80	16.9	15.0	1.89

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	73	71	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.05	22	-12	34	16.8	16.8	0.03	15.7	14.8	0.91
Brian Grant	63	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	17.1	16.0	1.13	15.6	15.6	-0.00
Malik Allen	65	63	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-4	18	16.7	17.0	-0.35	15.7	15.3	0.39
Rasual Butler	55	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	4	2	18.0	14.9	3.11	16.2	14.5	1.67
Travis Best	68	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	0	10	16.7	17.1	-0.40	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Vladimir Stepania	22	22	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	4	2	17.7	16.5	1.18	15.9	15.4	0.47
Mike James	27	27	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	12	-14	16.7	16.8	-0.12	16.0	15.4	0.64
Eddie House	49	45	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.24	-6	16	-22	15.3	18.5	-3.17	14.1	17.1	-3.00
Sean Marks	28	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.14	-10	20	-30	16.0	17.1	-1.15	15.4	15.6	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
DAL 87, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
CHI 103, CHA 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.77,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%