NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	5.9 [592]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +11.9%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	1.6 [751]		LVP	Shawn Kemp (ORL): -18.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeryl Sasser	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	86%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	13	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.01	0.04	0.01	0.06	24	58%	0.06	2	-0.07	14	86%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	15	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	14	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Shawn Kemp	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	6	31%	-0.09	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	17	56%	0.14	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02
Maceo Baston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	14	62%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	8	44%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	29.1	16.6	24.4	1.7	37.0	133.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +49.3%

ORL -10.2%

ORL -1.1%

ORL -4.8%

TOR +16.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.6	16.9	15.5	104.3	110.0	101.6
season	14.6	16.2		102.7	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		105.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.8	16.2	14.3	12.3	14.6
TOR	15.5	15.8	17.0	19.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	7	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-3	4	17.7	14.4	3.32	16.3	16.9	-0.57
Pat Garrity	61	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.40	9	-11	20	14.1	15.7	-1.54	17.2	16.2	1.02
Shawn Kemp	27	27	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	6	-14	15.4	14.3	1.02	16.1	17.2	-1.13
Jacque Vaughn	50	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.38	5	-7	12	13.9	15.5	-1.65	18.4	15.1	3.31
Mike Miller	80	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-7	12	14.7	14.2	0.48	17.2	14.9	2.27
Andrew DeClercq	53	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	5	-12	15.4	13.7	1.70	17.1	16.5	0.62
Pat Burke	25	25	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	6	-14	15.5	14.3	1.20	15.2	17.5	-2.31
Darrell Armstrong	56	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.39	2	-4	6	14.1	15.5	-1.40	16.1	18.0	-1.94
Jeryl Sasser	25	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	8	-18	15.5	14.3	1.20	14.8	17.7	-2.90
Tracy McGrady	81	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.44	1	-3	4	14.3	16.9	-2.61	17.2	14.7	2.54

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	66	69	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	-2	6	17.3	15.7	1.58	14.7	14.5	0.14
Antonio Davis	73	77	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	1	0	17.0	16.5	0.49	13.8	18.6	-4.81
Alvin Williams	65	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	1	0	17.6	15.0	2.58	14.2	16.0	-1.80
Jerome Williams	52	53	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	-6	14	16.9	16.8	0.13	15.3	13.7	1.61
Voshon Lenard	55	54	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	4	-6	17.0	16.6	0.44	14.1	15.4	-1.23
Jelani McCoy	24	23	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	-2	6	17.3	16.7	0.58	16.0	14.2	1.74
Morris Peterson	65	70	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.32	-6	8	-14	16.7	17.3	-0.63	14.2	16.0	-1.80
Rafer Alston	25	25	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	1	0	15.0	17.6	-2.58	16.0	14.2	1.80
Maceo Baston	25	26	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	3	-4	15.0	17.6	-2.53	16.7	13.9	2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 72, CHH 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.79,0.86,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
ATL 91, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.99,1	93.7%
MIA 85, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.94,0.85,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	93.7%