NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	5.9 [618]		MVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): +11.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.2 [784]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -15.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	17	61%	0.08	5	-0.16	7	71%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	28%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	9	60%	0.01	5	-0.17	7	71%	-0.06

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	19	65%	0.20	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	18	55%	0.05	6	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	0.00	-0.02	12	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.0	32.5	14.8	26.2	1.8	28.2	129.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +4.3%

MIL +3.1%

MIL +14.0%

MIL +27.7%

MIL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.8	16.8	15.2	93.4	102.2	101.7
season	15.7	14.9		101.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.9		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	14.4	14.2	16.3	14.8
MIL	16.0	16.3	17.1	18.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	23	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-13	18	14.8	14.9	-0.03	18.8	16.1	2.70
Clar. Weatherspoon	32	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-8	8	13.6	15.5	-1.93	17.9	16.2	1.67
Mark Strickland	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-4	0	16.0	14.6	1.40	15.7	17.0	-1.28
Otis Thorpe	39	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-8	8	15.9	14.1	1.79	17.3	16.4	0.88
Rodney Buford	17	16	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.2	15.0	-0.75	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Dan Majerle	50	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-7	-1	-6	13.8	16.1	-2.28	16.2	17.6	-1.42
P.J. Brown	60	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-3	-2	14.6	15.3	-0.67	17.0	16.5	0.45
Voshon Lenard	68	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	1	-10	14.4	16.2	-1.84	16.3	18.1	-1.80
Alonzo Mourning	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	15.4	13.0	2.43	16.5	17.9	-1.43
Anthony Carter	81	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	15.4	10.0	5.44	16.8	16.9	-0.12

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Reid	43	43	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-4	16	17.3	16.3	0.99	14.8	14.9	-0.02
Sam Cassell	69	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	4	0	17.0	16.2	0.82	14.1	17.4	-3.34
Ervin Johnson	45	46	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	7	-6	16.6	17.0	-0.36	16.7	12.9	3.83
Ray Allen	74	75	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	0	8	16.9	16.2	0.77	14.8	14.9	-0.03
Glenn Robinson	65	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	3	2	16.6	17.3	-0.76	14.7	15.2	-0.44
Vinny Del Negro	39	36	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.13	4	4	0	16.2	17.3	-1.09	16.3	13.9	2.41
Scott Williams	51	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	3	2	16.9	16.7	0.14	13.5	16.5	-3.08
Tim Thomas	38	36	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	6	-4	15.7	17.6	-1.87	15.1	14.7	0.48
Danny Manning	31	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.07	-1	9	-10	18.0	16.2	1.87	14.2	15.2	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.94,0.85,0.97,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.99,1	95.6%
TOR 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
MIA 71, NOH 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.83,0.7,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.84,1	93.8%