NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	3.1 [1139]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +9.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Comeback	1.1 [879]		LVP	Ricky Davis (CLE): -8.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	23	60%	0.11	2	-0.01	12	92%	0.03
Pat Garrity	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.00	-0.08	21	45%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeryl Sasser	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pat Burke	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	5	20%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	60%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dajuan Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	15	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	7	57%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.06	28	54%	-0.02	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.02
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	-0.04	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	15	35%	-0.03	4	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	31.4	14.8	27.0	2.0	23.0	125.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +42.6%

ORL +1.2%

CLE -5.5%

ORL +11.6%

CLE -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.5	107.3	100.0	101.6
season	14.6	15.1		102.7	94.6
opponent	14.9	15.8		104.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.2	13.7	14.1	21.8	15.0
CLE	15.5	14.5	15.3	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	78	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.05	20	-11	31	14.6	16.7	-2.03	15.5	14.3	1.19
Shawn Kemp	55	54	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.23	26	-17	43	12.2	18.8	-6.52	16.0	14.4	1.56
Tracy McGrady	88	85	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.05	16	-7	23	14.9	16.9	-2.02	15.3	15.4	-0.16
Jeryl Sasser	90	88	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	0	9	15.2	12.3	2.87	15.3	15.5	-0.22
Jacque Vaughn	64	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.12	12	-3	15	15.8	13.5	2.33	16.2	13.3	2.82
Darrell Armstrong	46	44	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.31	-10	19	-29	13.9	16.0	-2.13	14.1	16.4	-2.31
Andrew DeClercq	36	35	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.45	-15	24	-39	19.1	12.6	6.54	14.5	15.8	-1.29
Steven Hunter	5	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	11	-13	16.2	15.0	1.24	13.8	15.4	-1.58
Pat Burke	18	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.28	-11	20	-31	16.7	14.6	2.03	14.3	15.5	-1.19

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	29	30	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-13	17	13.7	16.0	-2.33	14.8	15.1	-0.27
Jumaine Jones	57	59	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.49	15	-24	39	15.0	15.7	-0.67	16.7	12.4	4.34
Chris Mihm	19	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-9	9	15.1	15.4	-0.31	12.9	15.5	-2.65
Dajuan Wagner	59	61	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.50	13	-22	35	15.2	15.5	-0.39	16.5	12.5	3.99
Milt Palacio	41	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-1	-7	14.5	15.9	-1.48	13.6	16.2	-2.68
Smush Parker	20	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.15	-14	5	-19	16.5	15.0	1.53	11.8	15.8	-3.96
Darius Miles	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-2	-5	15.5	15.0	0.52	15.7	14.2	1.52
Carlos Boozer	44	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.28	-23	14	-37	15.8	14.9	0.89	13.0	16.7	-3.77
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	4	-17	16.0	13.7	2.33	15.1	14.8	0.27
Ricky Davis	82	84	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	3	-15	15.4	14.8	0.53	15.4	12.4	2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 116, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
SAS 115, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
BOS 111, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%