NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	8.9 [147]		MVP	Earl Boykins (GSW): +17.7%
Washington Wizards	99		Comeback	2.1 [260]		LVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): -45.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.05,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	10	73%	0.31	1	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.01	17	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	15	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	17	52%	-0.05	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Bob Sura	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	38%	-0.00	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.01	-0.05	17	63%	0.19	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	7	62%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.08	0.00	2	100%	0.13	1	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.02	-0.16	0.01	17	41%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23,-0.45,-0.45	-0.45	-0.10	-0.35	0.00	19	40%	-0.28	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.6	27.2	15.8	24.1	2.3	29.5	124.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +16.1%

GSW +6.7%

GSW +7.3%

GSW +20.3%

WAS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.8	15.5	115.6	111.2	101.6
season	14.6	16.5		105.3	100.9
opponent	15.5	15.1		101.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.1	16.6	16.2	17.7	16.4
WAS	14.3	16.1	15.8	17.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	41	41	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.37	5	0	5	16.5	16.2	0.29	16.0	15.6	0.38
Antawn Jamison	70	71	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	-2	9	16.3	16.7	-0.44	16.1	14.7	1.45
Mike Dunleavy	28	26	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-5	15	17.9	15.7	2.23	16.0	15.8	0.20
Erick Dampier	52	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	1	3	16.1	16.7	-0.66	16.0	15.6	0.42
Troy Murphy	80	78	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	7	-9	15.8	20.6	-4.77	15.2	20.0	-4.77
Earl Boykins	33	34	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	1	3	17.6	15.6	2.02	17.2	15.0	2.19
Gilbert Arenas	65	66	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.28	-3	8	-11	15.8	17.8	-2.06	15.7	16.0	-0.30
Adonal Foyle	32	30	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	5	-5	16.8	16.1	0.76	14.9	16.3	-1.44
Jason Richardson	49	48	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	5	-5	16.2	16.5	-0.29	15.6	16.0	-0.38

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	46	46	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-6	7	15.7	16.0	-0.30	16.7	16.0	0.78
Bryon Russell	17	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-6	7	14.9	16.0	-1.16	15.1	16.7	-1.60
Etan Thomas	17	17	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-6	7	14.9	16.0	-1.16	15.1	16.7	-1.60
Kwame Brown	32	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-5	5	15.2	16.2	-0.99	15.5	16.8	-1.28
Tyronn Lue	19	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	1	-7	15.1	16.0	-0.98	16.3	16.4	-0.12
Jerry Stackhouse	80	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-4	3	15.9	15.2	0.67	16.2	17.2	-0.95
Larry Hughes	78	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-4	3	15.9	15.5	0.42	16.4	15.9	0.51
Christian Laettner	59	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	1	-7	16.3	14.9	1.44	16.8	15.6	1.18
Charles Oakley	24	25	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	1	-7	16.4	15.6	0.82	16.6	16.2	0.39
Michael Jordan	73	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.30	-8	3	-11	16.1	14.5	1.61	16.7	14.5	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.33,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 87, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.15,0	92.8%
TOR 107, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.75,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.09,0	91.8%
POR 90, SEA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.32,0.47,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.27,0	91.7%