NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	2.9 [1176]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +10.5%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	1.0 [1046]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -6.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	-0.00	-0.02	15	73%	0.12	3	-0.01	14	71%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	7	100%	0.15	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.00	0.05	5	120%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	-0.01	-0.07	20	54%	0.03	4	-0.04	12	58%	0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	7	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	4	36%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jay Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	0.00	0.07	12	82%	0.07	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	80%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	0.06	4	92%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	11	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	14	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	19	55%	0.00	5	-0.07	6	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	25.6	15.8	28.1	1.7	31.0	128.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.4%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.5	117.2	100.0	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	98.3
opponent	15.1	15.4		103.3	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	17.1	14.7	17.4	16.1
CHI	17.4	13.6	16.0	11.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	79	81	0.62	-0.12	0.75	-0.14	26	-12	38	15.8	18.1	-2.27	15.2	10.7	4.46
Tony Parker	72	74	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.10	21	-7	28	15.4	18.6	-3.14	15.1	12.5	2.62
Bruce Bowen	74	76	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	-4	22	15.9	17.2	-1.28	14.5	14.6	-0.14
David Robinson	63	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	1	12	15.6	17.3	-1.76	15.1	13.2	1.93
Stephen Jackson	71	72	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	3	8	15.8	17.4	-1.60	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Steven Smith	38	39	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	12	-10	17.4	15.3	2.17	15.3	14.0	1.34
Kevin Willis	44	43	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.33	-11	25	-36	17.6	14.9	2.71	12.4	16.3	-3.92
Steve Kerr	24	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.26	-10	24	-34	18.2	15.4	2.73	12.3	15.3	-2.92

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Robinson	46	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.51	17	-31	48	13.5	15.5	-1.97	18.3	14.2	4.18
Fred Hoiberg	27	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-14	14	13.1	15.1	-1.96	16.8	15.8	0.98
Jamal Crawford	32	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.32	9	-23	32	14.4	14.6	-0.21	18.2	15.1	3.13
Marcus Fizer	54	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-21	28	13.0	16.5	-3.51	16.7	15.4	1.30
Corie Blount	48	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-12	10	14.3	14.7	-0.41	16.8	15.4	1.35
Tyson Chandler	34	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.15	-14	0	-14	16.0	13.7	2.31	15.4	16.6	-1.24
Donyell Marshall	54	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	5	-24	15.3	13.5	1.77	15.5	17.0	-1.49
Jay Williams	63	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.23	-23	9	-32	14.6	14.4	0.21	15.1	18.2	-3.13
Jalen Rose	75	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	4	-22	14.4	15.0	-0.61	15.6	18.0	-2.40
Trenton Hassell	42	42	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.31	-27	13	-40	16.8	12.7	4.03	14.3	17.6	-3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 115, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
ATL 103, LAC 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
LAC 94, DAL 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%