NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	115		Excitement	2.9 [1215]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +13.7%
New Jersey Nets	92		Comeback	1.0 [711]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (NJN): -9.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.02	14	71%	0.14	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.04	0.03	12	65%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Corey Maggette	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	9	69%	0.05	3	-0.04	11	91%	0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.14	-0.00	0.13	14	73%	0.03	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Jon Brockman	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.01	0.08	12	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	14	59%	0.01	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Uzoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	52%	0.00	3	-0.02	5	60%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	9	52%	-0.02	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	5	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	7	19%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	31.4	15.4	24.8	2.0	29.2	131.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.5%

MIL +8.6%

MIL +3.1%

MIL +7.4%

NJN -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	16.2	15.5	125.0	101.1	105.7
season	16.2	16.4		100.1	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.5	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.2	16.5	16.1	15.0	15.2
NJN	19.5	14.0	16.6	15.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	76	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.23	25	-2	27	15.1	15.8	-0.69	17.2	11.9	5.22
John Salmons	65	64	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.14	20	3	17	15.4	14.8	0.60	16.9	14.6	2.29
Luc Mbah a Moute	31	32	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.30	24	-1	25	13.9	15.9	-2.06	19.1	14.7	4.35
Keyon Dooling	43	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.28	23	0	23	14.7	15.7	-1.06	17.6	15.0	2.61
Corey Maggette	54	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	12	-1	14.3	16.6	-2.37	16.9	15.2	1.69
Chris Douglas-Roberts	70	68	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	10	13	-3	15.8	13.5	2.35	14.6	21.2	-6.60
Jon Brockman	29	27	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	17	-11	14.8	15.5	-0.70	16.3	16.2	0.08
Earl Boykins	53	51	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	23	-23	16.1	14.0	2.11	14.5	18.4	-3.94
Larry Sanders	39	39	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.17	-4	27	-31	16.4	14.4	1.99	13.7	18.1	-4.42

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	33	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-20	17	14.3	17.3	-3.04	15.3	15.2	0.09
Kris Humphries	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-21	19	14.8	17.9	-3.04	15.5	15.0	0.55
Quinton Ross	43	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-20	17	15.4	17.0	-1.52	15.0	15.4	-0.35
Ben Uzoh	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-14	5	15.6	16.8	-1.15	16.0	14.6	1.33
Sasha Vujacic	49	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-11	-1	15.8	16.8	-1.05	15.3	15.1	0.21
Stephen Graham	51	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.25	-18	-5	-13	16.3	16.2	0.12	15.1	15.4	-0.28
Jordan Farmar	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-12	1	16.1	16.5	-0.34	15.3	15.2	0.07
Derrick Favors	48	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-6	-11	17.5	14.8	2.66	15.5	15.0	0.48
Travis Outlaw	44	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.11	-17	-6	-11	17.4	15.1	2.30	15.2	15.3	-0.12
Brook Lopez	36	35	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.22	-23	0	-23	19.2	14.3	4.98	14.0	16.0	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
MEM 118, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAC 114, BKN 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	96.7%