NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	8.1 [234]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +40.8%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	1.4 [288]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -42.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.41	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.24	0.17	0.00	18	79%	0.41	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	71%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	48%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.04
Michael Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	15	38%	-0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Vince Carter	-0.18	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.01	-0.15	0.02	20	55%	-0.00	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	0.00	5	110%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	8	68%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
J.R. Bremer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	8	59%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	28	49%	-0.02	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.15	-0.00	6	43%	-0.15	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.26,-0.36,-0.43	-0.43	-0.16	-0.28	-0.01	20	36%	-0.25	3	-0.18	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	3.4	27.4	17.7	30.0	3.6	41.5	146.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +50.9%

TOR +16.7%

BOS -21.7%

BOS -1.8%

TOR +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	17.4	15.0	15.5	111.4	105.6	101.6
season	16.2	15.6		98.8	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		99.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	19.8	15.9	19.6	17.4
BOS	15.8	14.5	14.1	15.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	67	70	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.32	15	-12	27	16.3	20.8	-4.48	15.1	14.4	0.69
Greg Foster	61	63	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.41	11	-8	19	16.9	18.5	-1.56	14.7	15.6	-0.81
Morris Peterson	77	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-8	19	17.3	18.0	-0.69	14.6	18.0	-3.43
Alvin Williams	72	71	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.51	6	-3	9	17.3	17.9	-0.58	15.2	14.1	1.19
Antonio Davis	77	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.34	9	-6	15	17.0	20.5	-3.49	14.8	16.3	-1.47
Michael Bradley	11	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	9	-15	20.5	17.0	3.49	16.3	14.8	1.47
Jermaine Jackson	25	27	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.04	-10	13	-23	18.2	17.1	1.18	15.2	14.9	0.28
Jelani McCoy	27	27	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	11	-19	18.5	16.9	1.56	15.6	14.7	0.81
Voshon Lenard	23	23	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.06	-13	16	-29	20.2	16.4	3.82	15.0	15.0	-0.04

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shammond Williams	43	42	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-14	25	13.9	16.0	-2.16	17.4	17.4	0.06
J.R. Bremer	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-3	3	0.0	15.2	-15.16	0.0	17.4	-17.40
Walter McCarty	64	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.38	10	-13	23	14.1	17.3	-3.21	18.1	15.7	2.34
Tony Battie	63	62	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.36	7	-10	17	14.7	15.6	-0.86	18.0	15.9	2.15
Vin Baker	27	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	7	-17	15.6	14.7	0.86	15.9	18.0	-2.15
Eric Williams	33	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	12	-27	17.7	13.4	4.32	16.2	18.1	-1.80
Paul Pierce	69	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	1	-5	14.7	15.9	-1.19	16.9	19.0	-2.14
Antoine Walker	83	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-2	1	14.6	19.4	-4.81	17.3	18.1	-0.81
Tony Delk	67	66	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.43	-13	10	-23	16.2	11.4	4.83	17.9	16.0	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.3,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 101, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.17,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.15,0.16,0	91.2%
BOS 107, POR 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.05,0	90.5%
HOU 93, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.24,0.37,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.04,0	90.3%