NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	6.6 [481]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +8.2%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	1.1 [1083]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -15.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.14	-0.01	0.09	27	60%	0.03	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.05	-0.03	10	32%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oscar Torres	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	16	56%	0.09	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Dean Oliver	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	20	45%	-0.10	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	5	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	19	67%	0.12	5	-0.09	7	100%	0.04
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.09	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	15	60%	-0.02	3	-0.04	10	70%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	11	27%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	0.01	18	47%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	27.2	15.7	25.2	2.3	34.5	131.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.7%

DAL +11.5%

DAL +14.1%

DAL +5.8%

GSW -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	15.5	100.0	107.0	101.6
season	14.6	15.1		105.3	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		102.0	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.3	15.0	16.9	13.7	15.2
DAL	12.8	13.8	12.6	15.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	47	47	0.30	-0.80	1.11	-0.31	21	-28	49	16.0	14.5	1.49	14.3	13.0	1.26
Dean Oliver	15	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-9	11	13.3	15.6	-2.29	12.5	13.8	-1.30
Jiri Welsch	16	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.02	-2	-5	3	15.1	15.2	-0.18	14.7	13.4	1.35
Oscar Torres	11	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	3	-13	14.3	15.3	-1.05	13.1	13.6	-0.54
Jason Richardson	91	91	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.44	5	-12	17	14.8	19.0	-4.16	13.6	13.1	0.53
Troy Murphy	52	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	3	-13	14.8	15.7	-0.88	13.6	13.6	-0.05
Mike Dunleavy	38	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	1	-9	15.3	15.1	0.21	14.1	13.3	0.84
Antawn Jamison	84	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	15.2	15.1	0.18	13.4	14.7	-1.35
Gilbert Arenas	88	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	0	-7	15.2	15.3	-0.14	13.5	14.4	-0.94
Erick Dampier	58	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.02	-21	14	-35	16.2	13.9	2.25	13.2	14.1	-0.89

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	43	40	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-6	19	14.6	12.8	1.82	15.2	15.2	0.07
Steve Nash	76	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-2	11	13.2	15.0	-1.80	15.0	15.8	-0.82
Dirk Nowitzki	91	91	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.13	15	-8	23	13.4	15.6	-2.16	15.5	12.4	3.04
Michael Finley	89	89	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	4	-1	13.7	12.5	1.17	15.4	13.5	1.87
Walt Williams	25	25	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.05	5	2	3	11.5	14.3	-2.76	15.4	15.1	0.25
Nick Van Exel	40	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	6	-5	14.7	12.8	1.89	14.4	15.7	-1.36
Adrian Griffin	51	51	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	4	-1	13.6	13.6	0.04	15.7	14.7	0.93
Evan Eschmeyer	35	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	6	-5	13.2	13.8	-0.56	16.0	14.7	1.28
Raja Bell	19	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	13.6	13.6	-0.01	14.1	15.5	-1.38
Eduardo Najera	31	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.13	-13	20	-33	14.0	13.4	0.59	14.2	15.7	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.54,0.75,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, WAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.96,0.96,1	93.8%
HOU 83, LAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.71,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.99,1	93.4%
BOS 95, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.68,0.73,0.64,0.6,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.89,0.91,1	93.3%