NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	119		Excitement	4.3 [939]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +15.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	108		Comeback	1.2 [1073]		LVP	Jason Williams (MEM): -11.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.07	-0.03	14	69%	0.19	3	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	10	70%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.01	0.04	5	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	13	53%	0.04	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	20	49%	0.04	4	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	23	42%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.05	0.04	13	85%	0.16	3	-0.01	8	62%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	71%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	12	69%	0.06	5	-0.08	15	47%	-0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	41%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	11	41%	0.00	6	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.7	28.2	16.4	23.9	2.0	31.2	128.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +16.8%

DAL +5.8%

DAL +12.5%

DAL +15.9%

MEM -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	13.7	13.4	15.5	111.2	101.9	101.6
season	15.1	15.3		108.6	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	12.0	13.6	16.5	13.7
MEM	14.0	13.2	14.7	11.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-7	25	14.0	12.6	1.33	13.6	12.7	0.83
Steve Nash	83	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-1	13	13.4	14.5	-1.14	13.9	11.7	2.25
Dirk Nowitzki	91	89	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	2	7	13.4	15.4	-2.02	13.7	11.7	2.00
Raef LaFrentz	68	66	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	13	-15	14.3	12.5	1.88	14.6	11.4	3.19
Eduardo Najera	55	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	2	7	13.7	13.6	0.15	13.5	13.2	0.27
Shawn Bradley	29	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.06	9	2	7	12.6	14.1	-1.47	12.0	13.9	-1.89
Nick Van Exel	64	65	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.25	-2	13	-15	14.0	13.1	0.90	12.2	15.2	-2.95
Walt Williams	38	40	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	7	-3	13.0	14.0	-1.06	12.6	13.8	-1.18
Adrian Griffin	24	23	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	13	-15	14.0	13.6	0.39	12.1	13.7	-1.66

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	37	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.26	8	-19	27	11.4	14.4	-3.04	15.6	12.6	3.07
Lorenzen Wright	15	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-9	7	12.4	13.5	-1.15	13.0	13.8	-0.76
Brevin Knight	49	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-13	15	12.1	14.5	-2.35	14.5	13.0	1.50
Shane Battier	63	65	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-15	19	11.9	15.6	-3.69	14.7	12.1	2.61
Michael Dickerson	40	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	15.0	12.4	2.67	12.6	14.3	-1.60
Gordan Giricek	68	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-6	1	12.7	14.6	-1.82	14.3	12.6	1.71
Wesley Person	52	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	3	-17	14.7	12.2	2.49	12.5	14.7	-2.15
Drew Gooden	61	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	2	-15	14.6	11.8	2.80	12.7	14.9	-2.21
Jason Williams	58	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.01	-13	2	-15	14.3	12.2	2.08	12.8	14.8	-2.02
Pau Gasol	87	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	4	-19	13.7	11.8	1.88	13.6	13.9	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.19,0.03,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0,0	95.9%
NYK 128, DAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
SAC 101, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%